Replies to post #162421 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

I don’t follow VNDA closely; however, if the 25% pop yesterday was due solely to the increased stake by Baker Bros., it’s likely an overreaction.

Still, it’s dangerous to short a company with an enterprise value of only $200M unless you know it’s a certain loser—e.g. FCSC in Jun 2011 following FDA approval of laViv. VNDA isn’t in that category, IMO, so I wouldn’t short it.

[researcher59]

VNDA +.39 to 12.95, up 200%+ in the past 10 weeks. It does seem a bit pricey with a market cap near $400M if the potential Tasimelteon drug user base is just 65k domestically. Yet the company believes the worldwide market potential is $500M per year ??? Will health insurance cover costs for this presumably expensive drug that may be no better than a sleeping pill ? Hard to reconcile those figures which are cited in this article -

http://www.rttnews.com/2006636/sound-sleep-or-sleepless-nights-vanda-s-tasimelteon-may-hold-the-answer.aspx

Although non-24-hour sleep-wake disorder can affect sighted people also, it is mostly seen in people who are totally blind and who don't have sensitivity to light. It is estimated that 50% of totally blind people in the U.S., or approximately 65,000 people, suffer from this sleep condition. Vanda estimates the total worldwide market potential of Tasimelteon in the indication of non-24-hour sleep-wake disorder at $500 million.