Replies to post #126813 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[dia76ca]

And then there is the safety side of Avastin." Grades 3-5 adverse events included febrile granulocytopenia (10%), infections (13%), bleeding (13%), thrombotic events (13%), hypertension (5%), bowel perforation (5%), and proteinuria (3%).

[ImaPseudonym]

If you want to try to raise alarm bells, I'm sure you can find something but you are being silly here. For those who want to compare bavi to the currently popular Avastin, what matters is how much benefit bavi provides over the control compared with how much benefit Avastin provides over that same control (i.e. when combined with the same chemo agent). Whether Avastin + water from the fountain of youth provides longer MOS than Bavi + carboplatin and paclitaxel doesn't really tell us that Avastin has better efficacy than bavi. Should Bavi + carboplatin and paclitaxel provide roughly the same mos figures as Avastin + carboplatin and paclitaxel, then given bavi's safety advantage, bavi wins. The only number of any relevance from the stuff you cite is the mos of avastin + carboplatin and paclitaxel.

In terms of predicting the market's reaction, that is tougher. No matter how good the numbers, AF and PC will shout about how this is a first-line study and the longer life could have been due to differing second-line treatments. Barring a miraculous p-value, they will also trumpet any lack of stat sig which is likely in a small trial. Personally, I'm not making any predictions about what the immediate impact will be on share price as a result of bavi beating its control arm by some particular percentage. But that is because I'm not daytrading this. If bavi shows favorable numbers to the current SOC, and with better safety figures, then for me that is further evidence that my money is well invested.