Replies to post #119665 on Intel Corp (INTC)

[mas]

“if during the holiday season, an OEM or a consumer has to choose between buying a Silvermont Win8.1 Tablet (~$40 INTC content) and a Haswell 8.1 NB (~$110 content), assuming some cannibalization, the net processor revenue impact for Intel is negative.”

Is this the cannibalization ARM is currently supposed to be doing now ? So if Silvermont takes a design off ARM that Intel would have lost anyway to a low power tablet processor of some description how is that a negative ? Intelligence and logic are not the strongest suits for these ANALysts.

[wbmw]

Sterne Agee’s Vijay Rakesh, reiterating a Neutral rating on the shares, writs that “if during the holiday season, an OEM or a consumer has to choose between buying a Silvermont Win8.1 Tablet (~$40 INTC content) and a Haswell 8.1 NB (~$110 content), assuming some cannibalization, the net processor revenue impact for Intel is negative.”

Depends on how you look at it:

1. Someone decides to forego a PC upgrade, and instead buys an Intel tablet with Silvermont priced at $25. That's an $85 net loss for Intel (based on previous mobile average selling price of $110).

2. Someone walks into Best Buy looking to buy an ARM based tablet, but instead walks out with a Silvermont based device, with silicon priced at $25. That's a $25 net gain for Intel.

Question is, how often is #1 happening relative to #2. I believe this is where the analysts opinions differ. Mr. Rakesh must believe that the PC ecosystem is collapsing, and therefore #1 is more common.

But I think PC sales will stabilize based on Haswell designs, and Intel will continue to win MSS in tablets based on Silvermont. 2013 may not be a huge success on average, but by Q4, I think Intel will be back in full swing.

[Tenchu]

VeeCee, from the article:

But Sterne Agee’s Vijay Rakesh, reiterating a Neutral rating on the shares, writs that “if during the holiday season, an OEM or a consumer has to choose between buying a Silvermont Win8.1 Tablet (~$40 INTC content) and a Haswell 8.1 NB (~$110 content), assuming some cannibalization, the net processor revenue impact for Intel is negative.”

What a profound statement! Someone might buy a Silvermont tablet for less than a Haswell tablet, and that could mean fewer profits for Intel!

Seriously, these analysts must think we were just born yesterday. "Assuming some cannibalization" is just a fancy way of begging the question, because unless the overall market for tablets is going down, the issue here isn't cannibalization. Instead, it's how Intel can increase its market share of tablets across the entire price spectrum.

I swear, these analysts get away with anything.

Tenchu