Rink, I'm not entirely confident that Intel's capacity problems are the entire issue. They used to be able to focus on high margin in these situations. Not the case this time.
I don´t really see an issue. Aren´t the (projected) numbers
- Gross Margin 63%+ (vs. 56% last year) (I´d call that very "high margin", seems to be around historical highs)
- Revenues ~$10.5B (vs. 9.6B last year)
They are growing faster than the likes of Samsung this year (who would have thought that in 2004?).
Their 200mm fabs are maxed out. Their 90nm 300mm capacity is close to maxed out.
Sure, AMD is currently growing faster in CPG due to their current product advantage in combination with their comparably tiny size (still around 10% of revenue share), they gain some revenue marketshare (but not exactly "much"). They did that before (yes, I know not in servers), when they got up to ~22% unit market share then, vs. less than 18% last quarter. Product cycles come and go. By the end of next year, performance and power consumption issues should be fixed on INTEL´s part, if not better than that.
They are doing pretty well considering they are already the biggest semiconductor company in the world, by quite a margin.
In an increasing manner Intel seems boxed in. With nowhere to escape this Q.
I don´t think there´s a reason to run considering the financial performance, and lack of a viable competitor that can really "hurt" them like competition does in other industries. The game is still way too one-sided, and considering AMD`s guidance, will remain that way next year as well.
I´m not saying you´re "wrong" or anything, but my perspective is quite different, and I think the numbers validate it.
How much revenue share do you think will AMD have in Q4?
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