Replies to post #947 on Hangover Joe's Holding Corp. (fka HJOE)

[thesmalls]

thanks - i really appreciate the response. can you tell me what your cost is or is that proprietary? do they have pretty solid price controls or is it volume based per retailer? generally - in the liquor market it used to be about 50% GM for the manufacturer, 50% for the distributor, and about the same for the retailer.

the licensing deal with the Hangover is probably cutting into the GM at their level. i am trying to get an idea what type of volume/revenues they need to generate to break even assuming that SG&A and cost of goods remains somewhat steady.

are you familiar with Panache Beverage that produces Wadka Vodka and Alibi Whiskey? they have some very good marketing and advertising behind the Wadka brand. not quite as gorilla as HJOE but have impressive growth, raising strong capital that isnt dilutive, and mgmt that has a very strong track record in the industry. i was speaking to the owner of a well established liquor store in my area about Wadka (he is one of the few in my area that carry it now) and the story behind the company. he was the one that suggested i look at HJOE. i am much more bullish on WDKA due to mgmt's past success, financial position, and stock position.

i am concerned the relative inexperience of HJOE mgmt and their need to grow fast and capitalize on the movie may force unnecessary dilution instead of negotiating stronger on the growth to get attractive capital.

i am not sure long term investors here will be proportionately rewarded unless they invest heavily on the dips and cover capital on the spikes. i think it will be very volatile and a lot of active traders playing the momentum swings around this movie. the drop afterwards could easily send this to lower lows as the active buyers probably loaded up between $0.07 and $0.10. they may not have the chops to continue to do so if it breaches $0.06. dilutive financing could easily drop it to $0.03 if it drops back to this trading range after the anticipated movie spike.

i like the story. havent tried the product (i use a home made concoction before i go to sleep and it seems to work for me. that and i try not to get to that point anymore because it sucks) but my completely unscientific focus group thinks it works. on a product like this, even if it is placebo, perception will move the product.