Tom,
Thank you for your reply. As you can probably guess, I disagree with you about what will diminish the threat level. I think we've raised it quite a bit with this incursion, not diminished it. I think anyone who is likely to succeed Saddam in Iraq--unless there is a large permanent US military presence there--will be less predictable and less stable than Saddam himself, especially with the no-fly zones, inspectors, and continual surveillance and bombing by our and British planes that we had in place before. We won't be able to do that with a new government, they will be able to do pretty much what they want. And my guess is, they won't be friendly to the US when the military leaves, at least not for long.
You ask Ergo, "why are you so certain Saddam wouldn't give WMD to Al Qaida? Ever hear the phrase 'the enemy of
my enemy is my friend'?" Well, that could actually be turned around--Saddam and Al Qaeda are enemies too. Why are you so certain that Saddam would give WMDs to Al Qaeda? Especially a closely watched Saddam? Al Qaeda can get their weapons elsewhere, they don't need Saddam. People in Pakistan, Indonesia, even our good "friend" Saudi Arabia--all have people with the wherewithal to help these guys get these weapons. And there are always greedy people in the world who will do it simply for money. By going into Iraq the way we did it--by alienating virtually the entire world--we've raised the temperature of the world, we've given Al Qaeda new recruiting material, we've multiplied people who hate us, and some number of those people will replace the ones we've killed. Will they be as effective? I don't know, I don't think the old guys were really all that effective, they pulled off a couple of big stunts, but not too much else yet. If they get numbers on their side and are able to pull a lot more smaller terrorist acts, they can actually have an even bigger impact. Look at what the DC sniper did last fall. He virtually paralyzed the DC metro area for weeks with a rifle.
I know, you think I'm naive. I guess this discussion is silly--I think you are the naive one, who thinks that this violence will somehow lead to less violence, and who thinks that any government succeeding Saddam will somehow be our friend. Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.