Replies to post #33855 on XpresSpa Group Inc (XSPA)

[FOX85]

A solid RR ruling after this long wait will certainly put this stock over $4, even if it isn't for a long period of time, as there will be much more certainty and confidence with Vringo moving forward. I do appreciate your figures and $3.39 does make sense, but it isn't strictly numbers that get factored into a stock's price, especially not a stock such as this one (i.e huge jump over $3.30 just based on MSFT settlement rumor as Euro mentioned).

[coolerheadsprevail]

Nice writeup and thank you. So you're saying that $3.39 is your upside target after VRNG gets awarded money? It hit $3.39 just on MSFT rumors alone end of March.

No, that is not what I am saying whatsoever. What I stated was that $3.39 would be what I would consider the absolute low-end. And this is assuming that NOTHING else is baked into the sp other than the BV of the Cash and purchase price of the NOK patents (that .49+.19=.68/share number, remember?)

But realistically, there is much more value to the NOK patent assets than simply the $22M that was paid for it, and the market knows this, and so there is value attributed to this in the sp as well. There is also speculative value related to both the MSFT suit and the multiple ZTE suits.

But as I said, everyone has a different idea how to value these speculative components, and so it is difficult to predict what "the market" will price these speculative catalysts at.

For example, if you think that the MSFT suit will yield $125M, then net of legal/taxes, you will price-in a discounted portion of .57/share -- let's say the discount takes it down to .35/share.

Also, let's say you think the ZTE suits will yield a global settlement valued at $300M. Again, net of legal/taxes (and this time an additional 35% to NOK after the initial $22M) you will price-in a discounted portion of .93/share -- let's say the discount takes this down to .55/share.

So simply based upon existing enforecement actions alone, we have:

.49 BV of Cash
.19 BV of NOK Patents
2.71 Undiscounted value of 3.5% of 20.9% GOOG award
.35 Discounted "pricing in" of MSFT resolution
.55 Discounted "pricing in" of ZTE resolution
______
4.29


Keep in mind that my estimates for MSFT and ZTE are PURELY HYPOTHETICAL and used SOLELY for illustrative purposes to show how the sp will be comprised of pieces other than simply the BV of assets and the GOOG case.

Hope this helps clarify my post.

And another thing to keep in mind that this is not meant to be a prediction by any means. This is simply my effort to logically think thru the components of the sp. So even though it is an educated guess, it is still a guess nonetheless. Call it a WAEG...