Replies to post #9698 on Worlds Inc (WDDD)

[Don Quixote]

Your estimate in my opinion is low....I'm feeling this is going into the buck range before Markman......I have bet often on much riskier stocks and now I am not going to cower after all the dd I've read up here and have seen. This is why I'm in this big and going to let it ride past Markman for the biggest payoff. I know some will say that that is very risky to do, but hell, I've been playing the pinks for over 10 years and know that WDDD is probably in the top 5 stocks that I've bought where I've felt that my return is going to be phenomenal....sorry for the run on sentence...lol....just my two cents fore I go shoot some hoops with my boys.

[coolerheadsprevail]

Many who play pre-Markman have zero interest in the actual case. They play the pre-hearing momo and bail without ever really doing any DD.

Most experienced investors redognize that WDDD is not simply one play, but several plays, each which need to be played separately on its own merits. The first play is the pre-Markman runup. And you are right in the sense that those playing this initial play don't perform much DD. They certainly perform some DD, but a pre-Markman play doesn't require too much DD because it is simply playing the predictable pattern of investor sentiment as the calendar marches toward a set binary event.

That's a very safe play but in my opinion limits any real upside.

History would disagree with you. The pre-Markman play is always more profitable than the actual Markman play itself -- and with much lower risk. Even looking at strictly recent history, we see VRNG and PRKR rising almost 300% in the run-up leading up to the Markman. But the Markman itself, even upon a favorable ruling, resulted in pops of only between 40%-75%.

Investing is all about risk-reward. And the risk-reward varies for each investor depending upon their entry points and cost basis. That being said, let's say the sp is at $1.00 by the time 6/25 rolls around, which means investors have one more day to decide whether they want to begin playing the actual Markman hearing, and if so, for how much. Well, risk-reward now needs to be re-calibrated based upon current conditions, and that means using the $1.00 sp.

The reward is a favorable Markman and a potential pop of 75%, which equates to .75, bringing the sp to 1.75.

The risk is an unfavorable Markman and a potential cratering of the sp of 85%, which equates to .85, bringing the sp to .15 (which is the approx per share value of the NOL on the books, which is all WDDD will have left of value considering that its entire future rests on these patents).

So you can do the math on what the risk-reward is for this particular play.

BUT, this is where DD can come into play. A gain of 40-75% over a 2-3 week period is nothing to sneeze at. It is fantastic. And if your DD tells you that the probability of a favorable ruling significantly outweighs the probability of an unfavorable ruling, then this is a great play for you to be in. For those willing to endure the risks, they will reap the biggest rewards. And that is what we gambling-types enjoy about speculative bets such as WDDD, isn't it?

As for me, as I stated above, I am taking it one play at a time. Depending on where the sp is by the time the pre-Markman play concludes in late-JUN, I will assess the other stocks that I am playing (or considering playing) and make a very simply decision as to which play has the biggest gain potential over the next 30 days and put my $$$ there. It has nothing to do with whether I believe WDDD will win its Markman or not; it simply has everything to do with where I feel I can get the biggest bang for my investing buck at any given point in time. If my assessment points to WDDD being the most likely biggest potential gainer at that time, then I will have no problem whatsoever playing WDDD's Markman.

At the moment, however, the only guarantee is that I will sell enough to recover my initial investment.

That is one of the smartest comments I have read on this board. Good luck to you and all of us WDDD longs...