Replies to post #826 on Grifco Inc (GFCI)

[Been_Burned_Before]

Dr Bill: We are cut from a different tree!

I completely understand your position. You obviously base your investment philosophy on the side of caution.

I, on the other hand, base my investment philosophy on the side of enterprise. In other words, like Warren Buffet, I want to get in on the very cheap for a great value, and right now, shares of Grifco are very, very cheap.

For Grifco, 2005 revenue was projected to be about $24.5MM, but I expect that projections will fall short, given what I saw in the case of the Scuda tool (granted, this comes from what most of you consider as rubbish, a mere Press Release, but that is all I have at the moment; you either trust what they say via PR, or you don't; it's that simple; I, for one, trust). Let's just take this case in point. Shall we?

Realized revenue for the Scuda tool will be about 65% higher than projected ($3.3MM compared to $2MM). So, let's lean to the side of conservative (oh no, there's that word, again -- "conservative" -- watch out!).

Let's pose the "possibility" that projections are all on the side of conservative on an average of half as much. In other words, let's pose that projections are short by an average of 30% (please humor me here; I know this is purely speculative conjecture, but just humor me, please).

Therefore, if projections are off on the low side by 30% on average, this could mean that Grifco's realized revenue for 2005 could actually be as high as $32MM, or so, rather than only $24MM, or so. Now, my enterprising position can't bare to resist such an amazing opportunity! Why? I perceive its value to be higher based on the searing heat of this sector, and I perceive its potential growth to be phenomenal based on the unique and competitive edge of the Libyan venture (I am only speaking with regard to Grfico here). As for its very shaky track record on giving us proper disclosure (something that a Pink Sheet company doesn't necessarily have to do), I just relegate that apparent anomaly to the growing pains of going from a private to a pubic company.

Once again, I quote from Legal & Compliance, LLC:

"Perceived value, track record and potential growth of the company usually have more to do with initial pricing than earnings multiples and current book values."

Hmm, to quote the immortal words of Meat Loaf, "2 out of 3 ain't bad!"

Been_Burned_Before