varok...IMO you are spot on in your assessment. During my career I have been a part of corporate level deals and there is a tremendous amount of information that is kept "behind closed doors" so to speak. What I mean by that is both sides meet and a game plan is set in motion, the best way to get it done is discussed thouroughly (DD if you will) and then it gets the rubber stamp approval and the material events then begin to start being implemented. Obviously there are more "technical" phases to these deals, I have just simplified it into laymens terms and condensed things down.
Circuit City and GnF are at this stage, both parties are in agreement and everything is a go, but only the key, top level players know this in total. There is all kinds of talk on this board about whether or not this deal will take place and if the roll out will occur after the trial period is over. Well, IMO that decision has already been made and the roll out to the other stores will in fact take place. We just haven't heard it yet because the companies aren't ready to release it yet. They are following a timeline and when they reach that stage, we will hear about it.
We have to remember that CC and GnF have already spent a fair amount of money, and have attached their company nemes to this deal just in what has been done thus far. Most likely, more than they are willing to just write off and then cancel the roll out when the deadline date gets here. They BOTH run the risk of losing credibility if they do. Obviously CC, having the bigger name would be affected worse than GnF would.
Why does the corporate world do things this way?? It's simple. They want to make sure that this is going to happen without any problems. If they started out immediately and involved all 600 stores, that could be a recipe for disaster because..."shit happens" to use an overused cliche, but an appropriate one. The way they are doing it everyone has a chance to become TOTALLY familiar with not only how the promo will work, but also in working with each other.
So by doing it the way they have done it everyone in both camps gets the time needed to work out any kinks and gear up for full production. In the initial announcements about the program they say it's a "trial period", but in all likelihood the decision had already been made long ago, and nothing suggests it won't happen.
A large part of the wording in what has been released thus far is corporate "cover your ass" lingo that is needed in the event that something catastrophic happens but for all intents and purposes the deal has already been cut at the highest levels and it is now trickling down throughout the remaining levels.
All of the info that gold-leader-r has been tracking basically confirms this. Even in stores that arent a part of the pilot program, they know it will be coming to them soon. You can see in the posts on this board by people that are familiar with the corporate world, there is no sense of worry at all. There are other posters that are going under the pretense that this might not happen and are worried it will spell disaster for GnF's stock.
I guess one would have to say that there is an outside chance that things could fall apart but in my opinion, those chances are so remote that they are hardly even worthy of discussion. And if you think about it from a logical point of view why would they decide to pull the plug??? Both sides win in this deal. It's running as planned. The only implications that it might fall apart are coming from people that have a history of stirring up trouble on these message boards in an attempt to create confusion. The reason they do this can be worded in a thousand ways but in the end there is very little substance to what they write. On the other hand, there is a lot of subsance in the words of posters like gold-leader-r and MANY others, to many to name but they know who they are.
So I guess the bottom line for people that want to have that "warm and fuzzy" feeling about their investment is for them to think about what brought them here in the first place. At the corporate level nothing has changed since the initial announcement, in fact things are getting better per the Wall Street interview.
The roller coaster ride the stock has been on has NOTHING to do with the ultimate deal. That action is basically ALL emotional traders and manipulation, and has nothing to do with the business invovement in this deal. If there are people that have let doubt creep in to their thought process all they have to do is ask themselves if anything has changed as a result of anything either company has released, and if the answer to that is no (which it has to be because neither company has changed their position) then it's time to just relax and let things unfold.
Of course this is all just my opinion and the final decision that ANYONE makes should be theirs and theirs alone!!!
I am REALLY looking forward to the upcoming weeks!!!!!!
Mike
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