Jab,
The potential stock for future issuance (your point 3) is a big question mark, at least to me. Around 24 million shares can still be issued from the current pool of shares. At $4 a share, if the recent offering scenario was duplicated, that's close to another $100M, so why the need for more shares, and especially when it didn't seem necessary to issue those shares to fund the pipeline?
Dr. Paul stated last year that the October offering would be enough to fund all of their current pipeline development. Per a conversation I had with Jack H a number of months ago (I posted this on the YMB at that time), the development formula for their injector drugs is as follows - 18 to 24 months for trials/user studies, $5M to $7M development costs, plus the $2M NDA filing fee. Lather, rinse, repeat. No Phase 3 trials means the costs stay within these parameters. Bringing the drugs to market does require funding, but again why would it cost more to do beyond what was said to be enough last fall?
Completely understood that even with a "yes" vote, that does not mean those shares will ever be issued via secondary. Still, why put that issue to vote and especially at this time? I'm not optimistic, at least at this time that this vote will pass with that aspect attached, and at the very least not until we get a solid explanation as to why this is needed. What could improve the odds of this being passed, perhaps greatly so is if Dr. Paul would communicate and "sell" the value of this proposition during the earnings call in May. And yes, I'm fully expecting that to happen.
I do not expect another dilution over the next two years, not unless we were misled last fall and I don't believe that to be the case. At this juncture, I'm okay waiting until the May earnings call to better understand the rationale behind the stock proposal.
I still believe the timing of the offering last fall had much to do with Antares staying Antares, to keep from being levered by a potential acquiring entity. The funds will be put to work, yes, but the timing will help keep the acquiring wolves at bay, at least for awhile longer. We're sitting in a good place...
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