Eli,
Time will tell who had it right, after all
it is no science.
I would just add that if improvements continue
in the same pace as the previous 9 Q, the price
is going to be higher than you say. (1.5$ Q2/2006)
As to your shorter term guesstimate, we are not
too far off, after all it is end November now.
Regards,
Dubi