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vidpok45

04/06/13 12:13 PM

#28793 RE: JJM760 #28791

Very true unfortunately but the iclusig story is just starting, not over as Favus would have you believe. We can only make decisions and assessments with the information that is most current. For now we know that iclusig is selling better than expected with a likelihood of surpassing revenue expectations for first quarter. We know that the EPIC trial is ongoing and if successful Iclusig may then go first line, worth a multiple of its current value. We know from anecdotal reports that 113 appears to be better tolerated than 378 and effective when xalkori isn't. We know that a 5th cohort has been added obviously because 113 has been effective already in repressing brain mets. We know there is a huge concerted effort by some entity with deep pockets to hold Ariad back....the question becomes why it or they are doing so....to profit by shorting the stock, or to accumulate cheap shares, or to try to constrain the growth of the company in order to allow the competition additional time to market their own less effective drugs. No doubt all these questions will be resolved over time, but we don't have the luxury of waiting until then to make our investment decisions.

AmpleKind

04/06/13 3:18 PM

#28812 RE: JJM760 #28791

aria2010: "Do the dd, cross your fingers and hope for the best. That's about all I know for sure these days."


But, if all you do is "cross your fingers and hope" you will not make any money. To act (ie. invest in Ariad) you have to have some faith in your investment thesis for the company (Hamlet would not be a good biotech investor).