My only real thoughts on that comparison is that it even more clearly makes my point RE: the potential for a run-up here at CVM.
NOTE: I stated *potential for*
No guarantees our company will complete a successful Phase III trial as yet,.... although no significant bad news so far is a good thing.
Insiders buying is generally a good thing.
Flu outbreaks lighting a fire underneath the potential for the LEAPS technology is likely a good thing for long-term potential in a post-Multikine approval way (if ephemeral at the moment).
My guess is my own as to what the actual numbers might be if things go well. That $700 MM revenue number sounds good - but IMO is probably on the optimistic end for a year 1 result.
But even IF that number is off by an order of 10 for year 1 - that's still a revenue source approaching $70 MM / year, and a source that is likely to increase incrementally as the treatment gets more exposure.
Say revenue is $100 MM / year from Multikine (to pick a round number). With current share structure that is in the ballpark of ~$0.30/share revenue. If we assume a P/E of 10/1, then shareprice should be in the ballpark of $3/share at that point. P/E ratios in many profitable (but growing) companies can be quite a bit higher than that.
Assume higher profits,.... or with a company that has a demonstrated track record (by that future time anyway) of delivering a medically relevant product that can then focus on the also potentially profitable LEAPS systems,.... how much might speculation drive prices higher than that? Could be quite a bit higher.
So the answer is,... I expect shares to be worth in the multiples of dollars range by the time Multikine is approved.
However - the main risk is obvious,.... if Multikine doesn't deliver, then we are back to square 1.
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