I too listened to Warren Buffett's reference to FMNA.
True that "...no one is really an 'expert' when it comes to trading". Dealing with a dynamic situation such as trading is a big challenge. The thought alone of 'big money' can make people dream and fantasize... and act when they're unprepared when it comes to trading. I know it from my own experience. Knowing the market or any one stock is now enough. It did not work for me... until I worked on myself a lot.
Stock price fluctuations and to what level the price of a stock may rise are within the realm of 'unknowables'. There is no point in seeking perfection there- only informed guesses at best.
What is important for a good trader comes down to setting his own goals and realistic parameters. A good trader focuses on the 'knowables'- and those are mostly in the domain of improving one's own 'weaknesses/shortcomings' and setting of goals based on reality and not on fantasy. Then, learning while trading.
Here are few quotes from "Trading For A Living" by Dr. Alexander Elder that I have found useful in my own education:
"A successful trader is a realist. He knows his abilities and limitations. He sees what is happening in the markets and knows how to react to them. He analyzes the markets without cutting corners, observes his own reactions, and makes realistic plans. A professional trader cannot afford illusions."
The unstructured environment of the market makes it easy to develop fantasies... Fantasies distort reality and stand in the way of trading success. A successful trader must identify his fantasies and get rid of them.
Good traders tend to be hardworking and shrewd men. They are open to new ideas. The goal of a good trader, paradoxically, is not to make money. His goal is to trade well. If he trades right, money follows almost as an afterthought. Successful traders keep honing their skills. Trying to reach their personal best is more important to them than making money."
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