Replies to post #29035 on Value Microcaps Motherboard

[lentinman]

Death: Brinker:

Obviously, I have diverged my views from him. However, I tend to adhere to the "old" Brinker rather than the "new" one. I still quote the "low hanging fruit has been picked" from March and the "cyclical bull within a secular bear". If this Brinker "cyclical bull" goes much longer, it won't be a cyclical bull anymore. It will be a secular bull and his whole premise will be up for dispute.

I don't doubt that you are positive since March 7th. I know I am. But, I invested in small caps and energy too - which have outperformed. Whether the average investor (especially his) is positive, who knows. Many are, many aren't. Lots of it has been dead money.

I read the most recent Brinker report. But, you need to think about this when tooting his horn. He has never said to "sell" during this cyclical bull market. But, despite that, he spent a lot of time telling us all the times he said to buy. If you never said to sell since March 7th, what's the point of relating all the times you said to buy on pullbacks?

I mean if you were fully invested as of March 11, 2003 - which he has never said not to be, what exactly were you buying with on all these "pullbacks"? In my case, I'm 100% consistent. I called the top on March 7-10th and have been phasing out ever since to 88% now. The DOW hit its high on March 7th and has not passed it since.

Of course, you can always (theoretically) find good stocks in a down market, but his newletter (especially THIS newsletter which is entitled MARKETTIMER) is about the broad markets (not individual stocks) and timing them. It seem to me that unless the DOW gets back to March 7 levels and passes them, that he will have been wrong to have waited so long to make the call ------ or at least not right. What is the point in being invested in a sideways market?

If you just read his newsletter, you would think that you would have made a fortune following his advice in the past 8 months by buying every dip. But, if you are already fully invested - as he never said not to be, then how exactly did his average reader make a fortune in the past 8 months? They didn't - obviously.

My intentions are still to wait for his call before I go short, but considering how far into the future he has carved out a bullish opinion, I imagine I will have to completely diverge (if I haven't already) from his influence before too much longer. See previous post.

Len