Beltway commentators have not begun to feel the sting of the sequester just yet. But individual lawmakers have — and they’re the ones who matter.
Republicans have assumed an air of triumphalism in the sequester fight; today GOP party officials are gleefully pointing to the news [ http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/03/19/white-house-warns-easter-egg-roll-could-be-canceled/ ] that the White House has warned that an Easter Egg Roll could be canceled thanks to the sequester, which is presumably supposed to prove that the White House is playing politics with the cuts.
But the superficial skirmishing about egg hunts and White House tours belies the fact that the sequester cuts are very real and that this is a long game that’s only just begun. Politico makes this clear in a must read piece on the impact the sequester cuts are having [ http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/sequestration-cuts-are-already-threatening-house-seats-89048.html?hp=t1_3 ] and the political pressure those cuts are putting on two lawmakers to do something about them.
The Republican lawmaker, Rep. Rodney Davis, and the Democratic lawmaker, Rep. Bill Enyart, both of Illinois, are already taking blame for the 4,500 civilian workers at a local air force base who are set to receive furlough notices. Both are also worried about federal funding drying up for a host of other institutions and social services in their districts.
The Senate is set today to pass a bill funding the government beyond the March 27th shutdown deadline that allows for some flexibility in the allocation of non-defense cuts. The measure, which is expected to clear the House, could mitigate the pain somewhat.
But lawmakers are discovering that the cuts are real and they are going to have political consequences, and there are already signs that they may be taking a political toll. A new CNN poll finds that Obama’s approval rating has dipped below 50 percent. But the news is worse for Republicans: only 38 percent have a favorable view of the GOP, versus 54 percent who view it unfavorably. Fully 79 percent disapprove of how the GOP is handling the budget and spending — more than the 67 percent who disapprove of Obama’s handling of them. Seventy percent say Republicans are not doing enough to cooperate with Obama, versus 56 percent who say Obama isn’t cooperative enough. A plurality says the GOP is too “extreme” and 68 percent say the party favors the rich.
Yes, the sequester clearly holds perils for both sides. But the Politico story shows that this battle may end up unfolding exactly as Dems had predicted — with individual lawmakers beginning to panic as the reality of the cuts begins to be appreciated by their constituents. With Republicans claiming the sequester as a “victory,” the GOP could continue to be tarred as the party of destructive austerity. What’s more, majorities support the Dem argument that we should replace it the sequester with a mix of spending cuts and tax hikes. By contrast, the GOP fiscal vision — deficit reduction only through deep spending cuts, paired with deep cuts on tax rates on the rich — is unpopular, and Dems may be able to persuasively argue (given that 68 percent see the GOP as the party of the rich) that Republicans would sooner allow the pain of extended sequestration to continue rather than close a few millionaire loopholes.
However this turns out, the moral of the story is that people really, really don’t like spending cuts when they’re directly impacted by them. The outstanding question is whether Dems can leverage that fact in their favor by playing on existing perceptions of the GOP in a way that forces individual lawmakers to the table to discuss new revenues.
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