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ls7550

03/17/13 6:34 AM

#36428 RE: OldAIMGuy #36427

RE: AIM excluding dividends and cash interest

Stocks might be considered as a form of inflation bond. You buy assets that are put to work and that generate a return (earnings). The value of the assets (share price) might broadly rise with inflation on top of which a dividend is paid (real gain above inflation). Cash might also broadly rise with inflation (interest).

Alternatively you might assume that dividends provide much the same as cash interest and that the share price increases reflect real gains (above inflation).

If you AIM total returns, share price increase plus dividend yield (income), combined with cash interest, then over time AIM can become cash heavy (cash-cow).

If you 50-50 AIM (initial 50% stock, 50% cash) just the share price (excluding dividends) and exclude cash interest, then the AIM might more consistently centralise around 50-50 stock/cash.

Here's an example for a AIM of GE



Excel spreadsheet

which AIM'd the (split adjusted) share price only and excluded cash interest. That started with 50% cash and averaged 52% cash over the total period.

If instead you AIM'd the adjusted close (including dividends) then it averaged 69.4% cash when cash interest was excluded.

AIM the adjusted close (with dividends) and cash interest and over the total period it averaged 85.8% cash.

The indications are that how you opt to AIM can make a significant difference to overall average cash weightings. Ignore dividends and cash interest and AIM might remain more centralised (50-50 average stock/cash). Add dividends and cash interest to cash and AIM will tend towards a cash-cow. Reinvest dividends and ignore cash interest and the compounding share price will also tend to make AIM a cash-cow. Reinvest dividends into the stock and include cash interest and AIM still tends towards being a cash-cow (compound growth of share price + reinvested dividends tends to pull ahead of cash+interest, which tends to bias AIM towards selling (reducing) stock).

For someone who is retired and spending income received from cash interest and dividends, the remainder AIM might broadly pace inflation and remain relatively centralised (around 50% average cash). For someone who is in accumulation/savings then some degree of action needs to be taken to address the tendency of AIM to become a cash-cow.

Rather than Vealie's and/or safe adjustment etc. one method might be to simply accumulate dividends and cash interest separately (outside of the AIM), until such reserves are large enough to start another new AIM. Something like Twinvest might be utilised for such cash accumulation (cash and dividends are somewhat relatively stable, so you'd have to make a guess as to what the periodic 'savings' were for the Twinvest).

For stocks that pay no or little dividends (retain more of earnings in order to grow the business), that's little different to having reinvested dividends and AIM'ing such stocks will tend towards becoming cash-cows. For such stocks it might be worth considering periodically selling some stock - as though a dividend were being taken.

In that image above, note that in 2009 the AIM exhausted cash reserves and couldn't buy when AIM was indicating buys. Had buying continued as indicated then the total gain would have been higher (9.1 gain factor compared to the 6.96 gain factor indicated above). Whether you'd been ok to take cash that had been accumulating separately (dividends and interest) to add back into the GE AIM however is another matter (with GE share price crashing through the floor I suspect you'd at best had some reservation of 'adding' even more into GE at that time).

Clive.