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ajtj99

11/19/05 1:03 AM

#65182 RE: ajtj99 #65181

BRCM weekly - a back-test of the $46 area would be a logical expectation near term:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=BRCM,uu[e,a]waclyiay[pc9!c13!c20!d20,2!c50!c200!b50!b200...
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Newly2b

11/19/05 12:18 PM

#65199 RE: ajtj99 #65181

SOX

This chart gives a good view of those gaps (circled in yellow):



Note this move began with a classic, and extremely rare, Abandoned Baby Bottom on 10/28, followed by that breakaway gap up over Resistance on 11/3, and then another gap up out of consolidation on Friday ending exactly at Resistance at the upper (blue) trendline of the huge Symmetrical Triangle from the 3/02 high and the 10/02 low on the weekly chart. Note this is the third hit on that upper trendline and is also the 67.8% Fib retrace of the prior drop.

The question now is whether Friday's gap is a continuation gap or an exhaustion gap. In either case, it should fill quickly (probably next week). If it is a continuation gap, the move should reverse up after filling the gap, break through the upper trendline, and continue on to at least the 511-512 area, and perhaps even the mid-600's in time. If it is an exhaustion gap, it may try that upper trendline again, or just continue down (after filling the gap) to the lower trendline where we face the possibility of a breakdown and possibly a drop below 200.

There is also a smaller rising channel within the Triangle that already has a total of 4 hits on its trendlines and any break would likely be to the downside. The Symmetrical Triangle is generally considered a continuation pattern, and this one appears in the downtrend off the 2000 highs, so the most likely scenario is a move down from here to the lower trendline, breaking it and continuing lower. Not pretty, but there it is. JMO, of course -- and I'm no virgin at being wrong.

Newly