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03/04/13 6:53 AM

#114715 RE: ImaPseudonym #114713

Ima, first 35% short on Sept 2012 (we had a 60Milj shares day) is not something that average short players can provide.

They can do things like that on a few milj volume days, not on 60Milj days. So some big fish was ready to short this KNOWING that the news would result in a huge dump. Remember the stock was above 5$ that means OK for all investors that have minimum pps requirements (most may trade all stock above 5$, for some it is 2$ etc).

So, ones this falls below 3.50 (pro use often 30% down as an exit) then they are out. Furthermore that morning of 24th Sept the quote was up while the trade was still HALTED for 5 min by the SEC (normal procedure). As a result someone has put in low sell orders and the Bid adapted (you may not cross the market so the Bid may not be higher then the Ask). That is the reason why it took only 30 secs to drop when trading resumed.

There is a sense in which you are right that at least 65% of the action on each of the days was sales of long shares and that is a big part,



That is a wrong conclusion. I have NEVER said anything about 65% LONGS that is an erroneous calculation you made by saying 100%-35% UNDELIVERED=65% LONG. That is not how it works.

The TOTAL SHORT volume will probably have been about 70% (Double of Undelivered). Mostly all intra-day short positions are the largest part of the SHORT volume of a day and you don't see them in the undelivered because they are not carried over-night. That has mainly to do with US broker regulation (many give a high intra-day margin leverage and a low or lower over-night one). So most short volume must cover before close and therefore cannot be undelivered.

So I take a conservative approach and set them on 35% too, so 35%+35%=70% (never 100% accurate!).

The 30% remaining percentage are LONGS (20 Milj) and we know the biggest part of that is Ayer with 5Milj+ shares or 25%.
Furthermore there will have been a HUGE LONG volume of intra-day margin calls. Remember it was the Monday after an Option Friday, so the shares where cleared and could loose their core value as of opening pre-hours. Add to that some turn-around volume from boxes and actually the remainder of real sell off starts to look as an illusion held before the market to give the impression of a massive sell off.

So actually, and that reflects what we have seen on this PPHM board, many staid in there position and did the road back up that same day to 1.80$. The short positions where largely close with the volume generated by the news of the loan retraction a few days later (drop to 15Milj undelivereds).


The short sales of the SHORT/BEAR raid is not alarming. It is unpleasant but it isn't proper to PPHM. Several stocks are under such coordinated attacks.

The reason they are NOT alarming is in your data (3rd column) The short volume generated by the bears was absorbed completely by buyers (not MM) and wasn't sufficient to satisfy the market demand. As a result the MM had to EXTRA short because there were NO sellers.

That 3rd colon indicates the MMs usage of the exemption rule (on the down-tick shorting). It does NOT represent the TOTAL volume he shorted, but only the volume that he filled the demand with at a moment that the tick was down on a day where the tick rule was of application. Why would he do that! Well because he needs to go down himself, he must cover and had no choice anymore. If the bear raid would not have been absorbed they would have brought it down for him and he would have covered. That is what they refers to sometimes as the fight between the Bears and the MM. If the MM absorbs the volume to recover and then piles his shelf some the bear will have to buy back at his price to cover or take it even more down. In the end the Guru (main coordinator) wins, the followers have a gradient from reasonable profits to severe losses. Those that close early, go for reasonable profits normally win. The cowboys that stay in long and search for the bottom are the looser, but you need them to make all this work.

So someone was, and probably still is, filling big time. Some news is out that we don't now and there is someone piling up at an extend that the MM can no longer deliver. That is why our reversal is slow. That is why JonnyRocket's last week post is correct, we will very probably revisit 1.25/1.20$ area OR (and that is me adding) we'll stay a period sideways below 1.37$ for the MM to cover. Of course news is the exception.

Now all this kind of confirms with mails I get about the difficulty of filling. The quote one guy: "I feels like the pps runs away from my limit each time I change it".

Yes, if you want to buy now you will see those little jumps up and when you are filled it comes back down a few cent. That is the MM shorting into your demand. If you have the time and wait for the MM exhaust (he comes back down and fills you if he needs to go down to cover for himself and in the process create sell volume) then you may be filled at your limit. This works ONLY in markets like these, NEVER when there is demand. That is EXACTLY why you need to buy BEFORE any decent demand.

People placing big orders (50, ... 500K) will have noticed that you are almost NEVER immediately in the profit in such market. It always first goes against you. That is good because it confirms there are no sellers and a BIG demand event will take the stock through the roof. We are on such point now.

The main point is to make sure you keep your stops under control or remove them if you don't want to be cheated out of your shares IMO. I have no stops, so I have no stress or risk loosing them.