Royalty rates vary significantly depending on patent category. Although more and more difficult to attain, royalties for other software infringement has been all over the map, sometimes as high as 15-25%. I wouldn't count on that for WDDD, but it illustrates the disparate range that is out there.
The more important metric would be revenues related to the two flagship franchises: WOW and COD. Having an estimate of this base will be key in formulating valuation scenarios at the various RR levels.
For example, if we know that COD generated $1B in sales over its initial 15-days of release last Xmas season, how much did the prior version earn during the previous 2011 Xmas season? And did the sales during the first 2-3 months of release end up comprising 90% of annual sales? An argument can certainly be made that for a product of this nature, sales crash significantly month-over-month as core customers typically buy their copy early (just like the iPhone phenomenon).
And how comparable are WOW revenues relative to COD?
And then of course, we need to have an idea of how many years. This should be relatively easy to figure out, especially for those of us who play these games. I personally am too old to have interest in these games, but easy questions for those here who do play (or have kids who play):
(1)
How long has COD and WOW been out? Over six years yet? Or are these more recent titles that were born only a few years ago?
(2)
From the first version of the games when they launched, did WOW and COD already incorporate the MMORPG element or was this only incorporated into later releases?
This will enable investors to begin forumalting REASONABLE valuations and projections in order to make well-informed decisions based on measurable criteria and not on someone else's hype.
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