Replies to post #157389 on Biotech Values

[DonShimoda]

a couple of additional ARIA thoughts...

I was surprised to learn that out of 155 NRx only 50 were from the early access program. So 2:1 new scripts are from pts who weren't in the PACE clinical trial. Additionally 40% of NRx are already coming from community oncologists where I was initially concerned there would be slow uptake. Add in the fact that IMS is only capturing 45% of scripts and the my take is the launch is significantly ahead of consensus.

[iandy]

ARIAD

- no info on whether they've reached MTD on 113... last update was that they're at the 300 mg dose level; next update at ASCO

As I understood it, they are no longer looking to establish the MTD. They are fine tuning the phase 2 dose around the highest dose tested to date. They have achieved a dose that provides the necessary level of target kinase suppression so they believe that pushing to an MTD is unwarranted.

BTW: I think it's great they are doing all these trials. They might all pay off handsomely, but the increase in R&D expenses is fairly dramatic. I was surprised at the size of the increase in SG&A. I am worried they might need to do another cash raise mid 2014. There is very little room for error here.