Replies to post #113139 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Robert C Jonson]

If the data was as good as everybody thinks it is then the partner would have partnered before the data was released as that would have been the cheapest if the data was good.


We've been looking for a partner who will provide phIII money for a long time. I've come to believe it is much harder for a BP/BB to spend funds on an unproven new MOA than for a familiar one. Thus, I'm guessing we'll have to have a compelling case to overcome the fear of the unknown. I'm thinking that if we're not there now, we're close.

[EYEBUYSTOX]

Frustrated,

If they found the discrepancies while preparing for the end of phase II meeting in September and spent 5 months scrubbing data, they're probably pretty well prepared for the EOP2 meeting now. And if they were "real close" to having a partner and adding board seats last fall, they should be "real, real super duper close" right now, right? If there is no partner in the next month or so I don't think there will be one. Or if there is one the terms will probably be unimpressive. There's no economic reason for a partner to keep waiting IMO and management's options only get less valuable with each ATM dump.

Jan 7 - Steve King in PR
"With the results of this review in hand, we are now in the process of updating potential partners and moving the program forward"

Feb 13 - Chris Keenan in WSJ
The company will release more detailed data from the lung-cancer trial "shortly," Mr. Keenan said potential partners are waiting to see the lung-cancer trial data before completing a deal.

Feb. 19 - Steve King in PR
We are continuing to update potential partners on these trial results and our future plans for advancing the program. Partnering interest remains high and the updates from this trial should help advance these discussions.

What is advanced from "high interest"? What will King say at the Cowen or Roth conferences? Partnering interest is now "Really, really super-duper red hot high, cross my heart and hope to die?"

You can only cry wolf so many times before people just think you're a joke and I'm looking at this from an ego standpoint. I simply can't believe after the embarrassment last fall, that King would get up in front of investors again after tooting his partnering horn so loudly without something of substance to support his words.

In addition, if any of the subset data from the pancreatic or 2nd line trials are that good, a partner will want to be on board before they are released because a deal only gets more expensive once the information becomes public. Either PPHM is slow-playing its hand for some unknown reason (maybe waiting for breakthrough designation or "playing nice by dumping ATM shares into a partner's pocket) or they are being unrealistic in negotiations and will dilute us into oblivion. I think it's the former and am adding a little bit each day. All IMO.