Replies to post #112932 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[BioBS2012]

Everybody who is anybody knows that the p values is a meaningless parameter here. The drug works, period. How well it works they will determine in Phase III.
Those nervous should take a chill pill and not look at the stock for 3 months. It will be the most rejuvenating feeling you experience when you take a peek again in June.

PATIENCE !!!!!

GLTA

[Wildhorses]

geo,

"IMO if a BP is unwilling to see that the risk of the lack of stat sig in the 2nd line lung trial is mitigated by these factors they need to keep looking for another partner because they are choosing to use the risk as a negotiating tool against pphm."

This whole thing is just a negotiation. You can bet that PPHM will lay all their selling cards on the table (unlike what they do with their investors) to sell the point that bavi is a slam dunk, sure deal in Ph III nsclc. And, they'll point out how extension to other indications is certainly expected. Quite frankly, the science guys at BP will be skeptical. They are by nature. But, I firmly believe the stellar results and King/Garnick/Thorpe's pitch will make them believers. I believe there already are believers. Heck, I'm often brain dead and I could sell these results.

But, here's where it get's interesting. The business guys/deal negotiators will tell the science guys to act disinterested and will ban them from the process, never to be heard again. Why? Because they don't want their giddyness giving anything away. Name of the game after the science guys confirm value is to tear the deal down to PPHM. It's a fight. And, it won't be a successful negotiation unless both sides feel like they left something on the table. Professional negotiators know this. It's business. Science guys don't negotiate much. They get rewarded for being right - not arguing and winning down and dirty battles. Let's hope we have some down and dirty negotiators on our team too. But, to RRdog's point the other day. Let's hope they are realistic. Get what you can. Set up future wins and let's get moving. It's time already.

Regards,

WH

[co3aii]

geo, unfortunately the 1mg arm was for statistical puposes corrupted and is being treated as not Bavi, being added to the control arm (I have some questions why they did this as opposed to throwing out the patients but suspect it involves quite a few more errors than we think and could not be compensated for. Without a control there is no trial so take your lumps knowing the Bavi affected control is going to have a better MOS etc.) Therefore we know PPHM had determined that it can not be used for statistical significance though it is likely that they agonized over that decision for exactly the reasons we are discussing.

In statistical analysis it is not proper to concatenate data streams which have been taken under different circumstances. Though I knew this rule I once tried to combine two different data streams to save collection time and expense as by eyeball they looked to be similar etc. The equation and its statistics that resulted fell apart as there was more difference than met the eye all other things not being equal. For example success with one form of cancer does not necessarily prove there will success with another as we well know.

Besides which and most importantly you do not need statistical significance to proceed from a Phase II to a Phase III, you need efficacy, which we have, and safety, a given for Bavi. Which brings up the question as to what is the status of the remaining patients in the botched NSCLC trial? Should those patients survive for extended periods than efficacy would have been demonstrated albeit not statistically significant, but if so then Phase III would be proper.

Good buying opportunity currently as far as I am concerned.