Replies to post #112659 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Fire Fox]

The answer to your question is called "subgroup analysis." In designing the trial Mgmt was already confident that Bavi works-- so they included PS 2 patients in order to get a reading on just how well it works.

In the pancreatic trial, the randomization skewed against the treatment arm and affected the overall result. In hindsight, perhaps that was too high a cost to pay for this additional level of knowledge on how well Bavi works (or doesn't work) in extremely sick death-row PC patients.

In the 2nd line NSCLC trial, the randomization seems to have worked quite well. 75.6% of the patients were PS 0 or 1. That gives them a nice sub-group of 30 patients to see how well Bavi works in these healthier patients.

This is why the Company emphasized in the opening paragraph of today's PR that "Peregrine plans to report additional data from the trial, including updated subgroup analysis and safety data, at an upcoming scientific meeting.

The subgroup data reported at AACR in early April or t ASCO in late May should be very interesting.

[volgoat]

Novel mAb,small company without a drug approval, hard to attract patients in the first place, much less healthier ones.
Who would you go to? A Roche trial or a Peregrine Pharmaceuticals trial if you were dying and knew nothing about PPHM.

Get a big name partner behind it and that changes.

[geocappy1]

They probably had to take the patients they could to fill enrollment. What bothers me is why they chose not to highlight this factor.

Is it possible they are downplaying some factors to keep the retail investors from driving up the pps to the point where whatever partnership or buyout terms they are able to get from BP would seem acceptable to shareholders? For argument sake if they sold the details to retail investors and the pps went to $15-20 then $25 doesn't look so good. However, if they downplay the results and pps goes to $3.50 then many shareholders would be happy with $12 buyout. Just using logic.

If they were pretty far along in partnership/buyout discussions then they must have a feel for what BPs are offering. Maybe this all about swelling the eventual deal to the shareholders now.