Recall that I said 2015 (being conservative, meaning could be sooner, but not "less than a year" from now). I don't see why you expect me to provide an argument supporting earlier than Feb 2014.
Most licensing deals today are inked after Phase 2. Many are struck after successful Phase 1 with efficacy as a secondary outcome. Drugs with the market potential of FluCide now strike deals in excess of $1 billion. FluCide does not need approval to market for a $200 million upfront payment. It only needs to show Phase 1 results in line with all the mouse tests.
Example: Abbot/Galapagos R&D license for drug against rheumatoid arthritis currently Phase 2. 1.35 billion with $150 million upfront and another 200 million after Phase 2 success. That's 350 million total for a drug before Phase 3, with another billion remaining to be paid. After approval, Galapagos gets double-digit royalties on top of annual license fees.
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