Um, Zeev might not have an answer for you. I think he went to lunch though.
-- I have only been learning now for a year. --
Well for somebody who is new at this, this unbelievable BS manpulation isn't normal and you can look at charts until you are blue in the face, and you are never going to be able to predict this kind of crap. Not unless "they" start letting you in on what they are planning in advance. Economy sucks. Check this out from 21st Century's morning briefing.
Turning to the economy, the Weekly Leading Index (WLI) from the Economic Cycle Research Institute is starting to weaken dangerously. This Index is purposely designed to forecast turning points in the US economy, and its track record at calling recessions and recoveries has been extremely good. I haven't mentioned the WLI in a while, but it was this unique indicator that warned us of the recession way back in Feb 2001, when most people weren't even considering the possibility.
Now the WLI is starting to head downhill again, at a worrisome point.
"This week we see an increasingly fragile economy that is at a tipping point," ECRI research director Anirvan Banerji told Reuters. "Depending on the course of oil prices and geopolitical events, we could be tipped into a new recession."
If the Weekly Leading Index continues to falter, then that will lend a lot of fundamental support to the bearish case, longer-term, and this is information we can't afford to ignore. But for now, the WLI is only indicating that the economy is extremely vulnerable if the Iraqi situation is not resolved quickly.
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