Replies to post #111732 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[corporalagarn]

Why would you even get that started again. It's obvious with the information available here that nobody can reasonably estimate the MOS of these trials. Parse words from pr's or the company website, educated guesses to enrollments, it all means squat. If you dont realize that now, you never will. Might as well have a monkey throw his own feces at a calendar on a wall and see where it sticks. This is not meant as an insult to anyone here, because I think there is a good amount of knowledge here, but there isn't enough information to determine MOS or anything else on our own.

[bimerkjaere]

My belief was that the pancreatic trial was too early to project any benefit. However, the 1st-line NSCLC MOS appears to have more room for a low side surprise. The trial is around 17mo post enrollment, and even a reading of 12-13 mos would be a marginal win, and enough to move to Ph 3. With mngt indicating 1H13 as expected read-out, we likely have a couple of months of cushion yet to come.

The 2nd-line results are a bit of a mystery with the censored patients and new control arm, but I think they still will warrant Ph 3 go by the FDA.

Also, IMO this was an overreaction to one trial outcome in one tumor type. Just as one can overestimate efficacy from a small ph 2, one can read too much into a negative result and project it on to the entire MOA.

What us ihubers should do is try determine if there is a difference in the tumor microenvironment between lung and pancreatic tumors that might explain the differences in bavi efficacy.