Replies to post #29481 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[treit2002]

OK, so the middle ground would be if he does not take on any more debt until 5 months from now, and hopefully hasn't for a while.

[viking86]

well if the shares hit the market six months from today, why would it destroy the stock? The stock would have 6 months to recover, many of those probably on FN with a series of positive news and 2 new quarterly strong earnings that will probably take the pps to the $1-1.5 range (if JF's estimate of PE=2.5-5 turns out for the first months after listing, we are talking about 2.5x to 5x $0.85eps by then). So the stock will be temporarily hit from a much higher level than back in early Nov'12 and may tank about 30%, max 40%, from 1-1.5 (or much higher) until the shares have been absorbed... The JV partner who got those shares at VWAP of 0.41-0.43 will get a large gain for a change but that's what "market risk" means, loss OR gain.

[gothmog]

There is also a chance to get a PP if the bond deal doesn´t work This scenario will not be affected by todays depressed 3-m VWAP either.