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SeriousMoney

12/02/05 4:25 AM

#6 RE: SeriousMoney #5

Toby on NKTR 12/1/005

NEKTAR (NKTR): This is essentially an inhalable insulin company and final FDA approval for Exubera, its product (marketed by Pfizer), is on the very near-term horizon.

* Recent Trends: Trading is all over the place and there is no clear trend in the stock.

* Upside Catalysts: An FDA approval is being taken more and more for granted, and may even prompt a sell-off in the stock, which happened when Amylin's Byetta was approved by the FDA. Assuming Exubera is available for sale for at least three months in the first half of 2006, that preliminary sales data will drive the stock.

* Downside Catalysts: An FDA rejection would be a total disaster. Should the FDA give a qualified approval with a narrow label (this would restrict the marketing of the product) that will hurt the stock and create a buying opportunity, because ChangeWave Alliance surveys show the product will be sell very well even with narrow FDA approval.

http://www.changewave.com/biotech/