Gfp
Sorry about answering before fully digesting the quaetion. I'm stealing moments to post.
re Oxy - You're right, this has nothing to do w/ it. I don't know the status of the FDA acceptance of endpoints.
Profits - Figure that between manufacturing and Durect royalties King will spend about 20% of sales. Marketing will cost ~25%-30%. ~50-55% of sales will be incremental profit. 15-20% is darn close to a split.
If you project to 700 mil in sales in 2010, you are looking at product revs of over 100 mil to Pain. I back out a current market cap of about 800 million today from that, even with continued r&d spending at the current rate. And the cash on hand plus the up-front means no further dilution until revs start coming. You don't even need 901 or Oxy to justify $16-20/sh today.
Regards,
Bob
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