Re: they could easily meet a September introduction with volume from the getgo with only 1% of their fab capacity.
You know better than that, but you love to FUD. Right now, the only SOI chips in production are 940 pin Opterons, which use a different package than 754 pin Athlon-64, requiring different testers, wafer sort, etc. Getting that package into volume production, while also ramping SFF Athlon, is plenty for AMD for the next 2 quarters.
Intel has to space its introductions of chips too, ever wonder why? Willamette came out in November of 2000, but Foster didn't come out until May of 2001 - basically the same chip with different cache and pinouts, much less of a diffence than Opteron/Athlon-64. I guess that means Intel had process problems "they couldn't make the chips" according to your logic. And with close to $20 Billion worth of FABs, too.
Get a clue. Once AMD is happy with 940 pin Opteron's package and volume (and has finished hammering that stake into the heart of Itanic and high end Xeon) they'll move on to qualifying the 754 pin Athlon-64.