Just because a trial is running longer, that doesn't always equate to patients living longer in the treatment arm. You can take a look at the Stimuvax Ph III for a good example of this. However, I would say for our 1st-line NSCLC, the extension is likely attributed to bavi as the control group (carboplatin+paclitaxel) is unlikely to produce a MOS to justify the length of this trial (enrollment completed in Sept 2011). Meaning, bavi will likely have a benefit here (>+3-4mos MOS vs. control), but the street again can't be certain. There is a chance that the trial has completed and mngt is reviewing the data and taking longer than expected (intentionally or not). Honestly, we need an update here and mngt will address this in March (earnings and/or investor conf's).
The pancreatic trial is too early to tell anything based on end of enrollment. Although we can speculate on 10 mos of MOS, I think the separation between bavi+gemcit and gemcitabine alone is not a guarantee at this point.
Finally, I believe the street is still betting the the Ph II 2nd-line NSCLC trial will have to be redone, and for the time being, this is still bavi's lead indication (could switch to 1st-line NSCLC or pancreatic if data is supportive).
My opinion is that the street is taking a slightly negative side on all of these scenarios, which is not irrational after the monumental collapse of the SP in Sept 2012.
In terms of SP in the short-term, look for appreciation in end of Feb as we come closer to investor conf's and earnings. IMO, the current action is betting on no news until then.
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