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spokeshave

03/14/03 11:10 AM

#10238 RE: austin01 #10237

Austin01: I'll take a shot.

Let's say that we want to see a share price of $20 (just makin' up numbers here, folks - not a prediction). Assuming a P/E ratio of about 20, that share price would be justified based on $1 per share in annual earnings. With about 60 million shares outstanding, that would require $60MM in annual earnings.

Now, let's guess at a net margin of about 15%, which is not unusual for the industry for a fabless producer. That means you get $60MM in earnings on $400MM in revenue. Compare that to a company like Altera (ALTR) which will likely do about $750MM in revenue this year. So, using all of the above as touchstones, if NVEI were half the company that Altera is, then it should be trading at about $20. Twice Altera means $40. You get the picture.

Now, what about dilution? Well, coincidentally, 3 years ago, NVEI was trading at about $0.32. Sounds like the same, right? Well, actually no. The number of OS has roughly doubled since then. What does that mean? Well, Ketch summed that up in his statement about "enterprise value". All things being equal, if OS doubles, the price should have fallen by half, but it didn't. That is an increase in "enterprise value". However, "enterprise value" means nothing when you have earnings. Then, the only meat is earnings per share. So, to answer your question, assuming all else would be equal, if NVEI were successful three years ago with half of the current OS, then the share price would be double what it would be if they were to become successful today. Clear as mud?
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austin01

03/14/03 11:17 AM

#10239 RE: austin01 #10237

An example in regard to my dilution question.
Let's say the original dilution/tech success scenario would have taken the share price to around $30. How much would NVEI's current dilution situation cut down on a similar tech success? Would it cut it from $30 to $20 for instance?
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MIDWEST AND LURKING

03/15/03 4:24 AM

#10253 RE: austin01 #10237

The Dilution was enough to scare away financing and a future position in a major Mutual Fund small cap.

And the Dilution continues..

MWL