Replies to post #25902 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[jaybe]

An alternative way model sales is start with the 2,500 R/I pts. switching TKI in 2013 in US.

1). Assume 20% are T351 - 500 pts.
2). Assume half of remaining are R/I to one TKI only, and we get 15% - 150 pts.
3) Leaves other half as R/I to 2 or more TKI's, and we get 75% - 750 pts.
4) Add 100 from US expanded access (slide shows 179 US pts.)

Total is 1500 pts. at year end.

As to discontinuation, I think for 2013 the number will be low due to half starting second half of year. I would estimate 35% terminate from July to Dec., 750 pts. x 35% = 262 pts.

So this would drop year end total to 1240 pts. which would lower total revs. from $79 to $68M.