Re: seasonality, I would note that the last five years have seen mixed results in November and December.
In 2000, November and December were both down.
In 2001, November was up big, while December was down most of the month and ended flat.
In 2002, November was up big, and December was down big.
In 2003, November and December were both pretty much flat, with the Jan 04 rally starting in late December.
In 2004, November was up big (the election) and December was mostly flat.