Excellent work FTM, this is the type of research we can do to try stay ahead of the market. I agree that the Avastin C+P control arm was not a good comparison to the Phase IIa for bavi. I believe it was LifeTech Capital that mentioned this difference in dosing as well: "Investors should note that these results were achieved using less Paclitaxel (175mg/m2 vs. 200mg/m2) and less Carboplatin (AUC=5 vs. AUC=6)", but you have found a much better historical control
Granted, both C+P controls (bavi and talactoferrin) have small pt samples, and thus a risk for variance in the OS number (let's say compared to what an avg. figure would be over multiple trials or just a larger, Ph III trial). However, I feel comfortable with your 46% increase number mentioned, and believe it can be replicated in the current 1st-line trial.
Let's say bavi is already at 14mo MOS if reported today, a 46% increase would mean C+P would be 9.6 mo. That gives us some wiggle room from the 8.5 mentioned in the talactoferrin control.
Either way, we are probably going to see a headline PR of something like '50% improvement in median OS with bavi when added to C+P in 1st-line NSCLC'
Thanks for your work FTM, appreciated as always.
IMO
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