RRdog, can I ask how you came to the 11 month estimate for MOS on the pancreatic trial? I have tried to estimate this as well using start of trial, date of completion of enrollment, and comparing to 2nd-line NSCLC timelines.
For example, we know that the 3mg/kg arm in the 2nd-line NSCLC had a 13 month MOS reported in Sept 2012. Start of that trial was June 2010, and completed enrollment in Oct. 2011.
[url][/url][tag]NSCLC[/tag]
Months post enrollment: 11 (at data release, Sept 2012)
Months post start of trial: 31 (at data release, Sept 2012)
MOS: 13
Ratio of MOS to months post start of trial: 13/31 = 0.419
[url][/url][tag]Pancreatic cancer:[/tag]
Months post enrollment: 7
Months post start of trial: 24
calculated MOS based on months post enrollment: 8.3
calculated MOS based on NSCLC Ratio of MOS to months post start of trial: 10.1
So, I would say that we are looking at between 8.3 and 10.1 MOS, or to round, 8 to 10 mo MOS.
That was if we were to report this month. If I would have to give a final estimate now, I would say 10 months and it would be reported in late Feb. Either way, I truly believe that a partner would want to move bavi to a Ph III at a 3 month incremental benefit to the control arm or better, regardless of stat sig.
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