Replies to post #25600 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[jaybe]

No question. I'm counting on $36 YE '13.

Here's how.

$24 by Feb 8th - 1st Qtr. Earnings Call
Iclusig Update - launch, attrition of compassionate use/expanded access, sales force
'113 Update MTD, DLT, and recommended dose for PH2 cohorts
Announce timing for 5th molecule IND


$28 by May 8th - 2nd Qtr Earnings Call
Report Q1 Iclusig sales of $3-5M
ASCO abstracts for '113 (3 mos. PH2 results as late-breaking)
Early Iclusig data for GIST and SCC
Half of EPIC trial pts. enrolled (starts clock on 12 mos. readout)


$32 by Aug 8th - 3rd Qtr Earnings Call
Report Q2 Iclusig sales of $10-12M
Half of EPIC trial pts. enrolled (starts clock on 12 mos. readout)
EMA approval of Iclusig (sales not expected until '14)
Initiate PH1 trial of 5th molecule


$36 by YE'13
ESMO - 6 mos. '113 PH2 data for all cohorts
EPIC trial at ASH(3 mos. comparison of safety/tolerability vs. Imatinib)


P.S. Bob's your uncle...

[micanwait]

"Does anyone think we have any chance in returning to $25 per share by the end of 2013?"

Are you being sarcastic? Any chance? If I didn't think this stock with this two-year momentum (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=ARIA&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m50%2Cm200&a=vm&c=) could gain at least 25% this year, I'd probably sell.

Sure, there is still plenty of risk and things could sour, but, as a matter of odds, Vegas would probably put Ariad at 3-1 to make more than 25%.