You asked
>>When is the news expected.
This is more of a musings post and I have no claim to any better understanding than anyone else.
The company has stated "Data in January." We have absolutely no other knowledge except that. Most people are worried about January 18th because that is Jan opex. Others are worried simply because they want to be out before data release.
IMO in the second case one should consider selling or hedging soon. We have had one heck of a runup (although obviously a lot of peope have recently bought in the 7s and 8s and so are not up by very much) and while we could certainly go the low double digits, we could also simply bounce around for 2-4 weeks between $7 and $8.50. If you're only in it for a trade, and have to ask advice on a message board, then take your profit and run.
If you are worried about opex, then it is more critical, because it's 100% loss if you are wrong on timing. My general advice is always, "It takes longer than you think."
More musings:
They announced they had "projected" 380 events on Monday 11/12/12.
They get blinded #s of events so could project it pretty closely, it is assumed that they only announced after they were pretty certain it had occurred, with a cushion of a few more. (the risk there is that upon review, some of what were assumed to be progression really weren't and so they'd have to wait until they legitimately hit 380).
Ten weeks from that date is Monday 1/21/13. That is one trading day AFTER Jan opex.
There is nothing magical about ten weeks except that in interim timing they had said 8-10 weeks and it was closer to 12-13 weeks (and every one of those days after 10 weeks had passed was agony).
Last time I spoke to Jeff Church I asked if final data scrub would be "easier" because they had already gone through so much data for the first 219 events from the interim review. (IOW they only had to look at another 180 or so) As expected he said they'd be re-reviewing ALL the data. This is because once they lock the database and commit to unblinding the arms, they cannot change anything, even if wrong. The FDA can only look at the locked data, anything else is considered post-hoc analysis.
MT has said several times he wants the data to be ACTIONABLE. IE, correct in all respects.
OTOH, it's been mentioned that it is convenient for the DMC (all geographically proximate) to meet in very early Jan.
And there's a conference (don't recall which one) in mid Jan that would be logical and great to present late-breaking data at, if available. Some very smart people are banking on that combo to mean data will occur by then.
My bottom line: Only options I hold right now are Feb13 or later. I've already sold personally the shares I need to in order to derisk. I have no need to guess when in January we get data. If I had to, though, I would NOT put myself in a position where I had to be right, before Jan opex. IMHO it will be later Jan (but I'd love to be wrong!)
GLTA
Trond Hildahl
*** This is presented for educational and informational purposes only, and should not be construed as personalized legal, tax, investment, or financial advice. My own resources, risk tolerance, and personal situation have been taken into consideration for any trades mentioned and should not be used as a basis for someone else's trades.
*** Stocks may lose value and this is not recommendation to buy or sell this particular issue.
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