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DFW

12/23/12 9:02 PM

#58 RE: Timothy Smith #57

Million Dollar Question--Oil Prices

Here is a weekly Chart





The low in Jan 09 was around 38 bucks
The high right before that was 145
We are at 88.46 now...

Oil prices hit an all-time high of $145 a barrel in July 2008. This drove gas prices to $4.00 a gallon. Most news sources blamed this on surging demand from China and India, combined with decreasing supply from Nigeria and Iraq oil fields. However, even then this wasn't logical, since the economy was already in a recession.

I think the high prices where cause mainly by speculation but we did have the war going on but the election of Obama and the market tanking dropped the prices real low.....that is where I got interested in MLPs...

Here is a Daily Chart


high 110 low 78



In the last year the dynamics have changed drastically as you well know...

West Texas pipelines are backed up and we are shipping by rail.

That could be fixed in about a year but reworking wells using fracking has brought a lot of oil on line. We have a glut and I am surprised prices are this high. The new shall oil finds puts reserves very high all over the US.

Then I see current price movement and scratch my head.

Hour chart





I am hearing 50 buck oil from some but I do not see it in the market as I think a lot of money has moved from gold and is back speculating in oil.

I would like to see 60 for a spot to start buying again and I think we will get there from the coming recession (the cycle is due) along with the fiscal cliff and debt ceiling limit debate on the way.

Speculation could keep it in the range we are in.
But with all we have on line and another recession (I feel) looming.....got to put pressure on the price for the next 6 months...

5 minute chart





Here is a Handy Futures Chart Site

http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

It has been nice running into you here on I-Hub this year.

Merry Cliffmas !!!

DFW...;-)


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