Replies to post #2475 on Nokia Corporation (NOK)

[Teaks1185]

the exclusive is for the 920, and it is for a limited time.

There are a TON of opportunities for VZW/NOK and VZW has what 85,000,000 customers!!!!

[str8_chuter]

As Teaks has already mentioned, the exclusive with AT&T is limited. I believe it lasts 6 months. If Verizon is next in line, that is a very big deal.

BTW, I just read the NOK analyst forecasts. Average estimate is a paltry $37.9B in revenues in FY '13. The most optimistic estimate of the 15 analysts is $48.7B. Now unless they defer a bunch of revenues on handsets, my guess is these numbers are too low.

China Mobile now has 707 million subscribers. Perhaps 5% of these buy the 920T. I don't know what price was negotiated by Nokia per phone but for ballpark purposes, let's say something on the order of 500 bucks. That comes to over $17B in revenues alone. If they get just 25% of the subscriber base to buy an Asha (where I will use a conservative price of $85), that would be another $12B in revenues. Over $29B just from China Mobile.

But again, I don't know how much they defer on handsets. Maybe someone else can chime in and poke holes in my overly simplistic forecast.

[headintothelake]

Looks like it's been answered; 6 months exclusivity for the 920. But I'm glad to see the involvement with Verizon, obviously because it expands the customer base, but mostly because I thought AT&T really sucked. Article after article talked about how AT&T store personnel didn't know much about the phone, steered people away from the phones, didn't have any promotional materials displayed and sometimes didn't even have the phones displayed. It doesn't matter how much you spend on marketing if at ground level no one is trying to sell your phones. I've seen articles where Nokia's talked about addressing that issue, so it's good to know they're aware of it and are trying to fix it.

I don't know what else NOK has up it's sleeve for Verizon, but could be that they get the next generation of the lumia. If it had a pureview camera like the 808, but with a smaller sensor, that would be pretty cool. But who knows, will be interesting to see.

imo
Lake