Replies to post #2378 on Africa Oil Corp (AOIFF)

[dat_51or]

I agree with you Scarbender.

To add to what you say (weak hands, tax selling, low volume) the fundamentals haven't changed. Ngamia is huge, but what holds us back is testing. Twiga was very resepctable, especially when you dig deeper to find that this well was purposely stepped out to explore the bounds of oil bearing sands, but it's not tested. We need those tests! PaiPai is a 30% play for us and yes it is risky but aren't all wildcat wells risky? Tullow likes the location and they're pretty darn good at what they do. If Tullow likes it, so do I.

We have upwards to 100 prospects to explore and now have $300 million in the bank. Our mgt tells us we'll see 7-8 new wells started in 2013. Our lead partners are Tullow and Marathon - both very successful and pros at East Affrica. That's a whale of a lot of drilling in 2013 with great partners. Bring it on in 2013!

Now I'm as gut punched as any with this SP drop, but am looking beyond the near term. Maybe January will bring us back up and put smiles on our face.

One last thought, picking up on Scar's post. IR. AOI is in the bigger leagues now and really needs to hire a professional IR person to advise and guide Mr Hill - especially when to say something (hint...NOW?). Sophia is probably a fine employee, but is stretched thin. It's time to grow a little more, AOI, and bring on some professional help, IMO.

Best to you all,
dat

[Strategyone]

May I throw another possibility out there?

There are some investors in AOI who bought in before the oil discovery and are currently sitting on very nice gains. We are currently sitting at a juncture where the US congress is contemplating the fiscal cliff. One of several options out there is messing with tax codes. It is no secret that the US long term capital gains rate is currently at 15% and extremely low from a historical perspective. Not only will they likely suggest bumping that up (has been proposed many times in the past), I also believe that is one of the "cliff" triggers that doesn't get renewed if congress can't come to an agreement. If they do come to an agreement, that 15% may only be renewed for the 98% group (goodness knows who here might be in that infamous 2%).

Anyway, if I were holding over 12 months from below the $2 range and I were hoping to cash in on some of the gains for other use, I would want to sell before the end of the year to lock in the 15% capital gains rate. Even if I was planning on maintaining my investment in AOI, it may be advantageous to sell before the end of the year and buy back in after 30 days to set a new and higher cost basis for my investment going forward to lower capital gains in the future which will likely be at a higher rate.

Just a possibility.

fyi, I am currently neither in the 2% nor holding 12 months yet so this example does not apply to my personal holdings.