Replies to post #103827 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[nuke661]

CP,,

After reading that post I need to get some Dramamine and I need to send you some tin-foil so you can make a hat and maybe a full body suit. :-).

To be honest I started writing a similar tome on the subject of the 12-5 Shan no presentation and the recent other news (job postings and Cotara) but after I got to about the 20 paragraphs I realized I needed to go looking for the tin-foil for myself.

In the end I've boiled it down to this; they either don't have the 2nd line NSCLC data resolved but they still think it can be and are working diligently on it OR they know its never going to be able to support/produce any positive news announcement(s) and are implementing a delaying action until we can get the other trials' positive news. I'm betting on the latter because IMO they have had plenty of time to go through the data and test/sample all the returned drug containers involved and to research and understand the 3rd party vendor processes involved (that statement about understanding the 3rd party vendor's processes still gives me heartburn because they should have understood them going in - refer back to my posts on my position re: prudent QA audits before contracting with vendors for such a company survival critical service).

It certainly seems like all the cards are again lining up for very positive news for these other trials based on time since trial enrollment completion without announcement of data. I'm ok with having to wait for this news to get things popping again, not thrilled with having yet to wait another "several months" in the future for a significant event but I'm resolved to the fact that its probably the only very positive scenario in the near term that will again drive the pps to new heights.

I don't believe they have a Cotara partner lined up based on my reading of the PR. Again its obvious that everyone can have very different views on the same news. I'm certainly hoping to have to eat my words on this but we'll just see how it plays out.

I also don't see how we have a snowball's chance in West Point (that's for you Army guys :), GO NAVY, BEAT army!!!)in handling the Cotara trials on our own. We barely have enough to fund our year to year operations with the current ongoing trials and day to day operational load let alone support the start-up and performance of an international drug trial that requires neurosurgeons and operating teams and all the pre op work ups and post operative treatments for each Cotara treatment. I know its only a one time treatment but how much more must it cost to perform this one-time treatment than a (relatively) more simple IV procedure. I've never seen the cost data to develop a comparison and this is just an intuitive position.

All of course IMHO. eom

[biopharm]

Good analysis and I will favor your outlook of:

"Now assume for a moment you are at the table as a BP, would you like that good news would bring other, already excluded, BPs back to the table with tempting offers that could force you to re-evaluate yours! You would make it clear to Peregrine that you do not want that, possibly even putting something against it that Peregrine likes/wants."

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Peregrine IMO most likely has that partner that suits each company best and sticking with them thru this.... as for the partner: They just want to make sure that the data continued to trend their way and the way it all turned out: 1) BP partner got a few extra months of insurance and 2) they also got Cotara phase III ready agreement from FDA and 3) Peregrine has to keep everyone at bay and calm on all fronts until the genie is let out of the bottle.

Monday just may be the beginning of connecting more dots that is plainly right in front of our eyes as AF and friends try to distract as much as they can to use the liquidity in this stock to make a few more bucks before we move upward and onward towards a Bavi pipeline that just may yet prove to be worth the wait!