Here's a stock charts chart covering USA.TO from 2008 through 2010:
What does that show if you compare that chart to yours for silver ? Your silver chart shows silver up by 3X from that time period until now... from $10 in late 2008 to a bit over $30 now...
Should you expect to see USA.TO trading in a linear relationship at that same multiple relative to the charts for USA.TO from the same period ?
If so, then, it still matters what you're looking at as the low. If you use the $0.25 low, then that same 3X would be $0.75 now, and if you use $0.50 as the "average" low, then that same 3X would be $1.50 now...
So, I don't think USGIF has any "catching up" to do relative to silver prices... as that comparison shows USA.TO being somewhat overpriced now in the linear comparison.
What that leaves, mostly, is a need for determining how you should value all the "change" that has occurred since 2008...
The company has continued to make steady progress since 2008 in improving the physical plant... Under Parker's watch, they completed upgrades and a restructuring of the extraction operations... and they completed a couple stages of a planned improvement in the mine itself... increasing the volume of ore able to be moved... working on getting a second shaft fully operational... But, the benefit of all that "physical" improvement is already being solidly incorporated in their financial performance over the time period we're looking at... so discounting it in other terms is reasonable... unless you can point to some future impact in $ terms that is to be expected from what's already in the pipeline...
There will be potential increases in throughput... but, the utility they have will depend on proof in capability that shows them restoring prior management control over operations... costs.
What I see... is costs out of control... paired with a couple of moves that are guaranteed to sustain that negative trend in cost increases... along with a couple other negative factors that are recently imposed.
There isn't a positive meaningful operational difference between USGIF now and USSIF in Jan of 2010 with 2010 costs at $10 an ounce and silver prices at $20 an ounce... ??? I don't think a $10 per ounce margin at $30 silver is worth near as much as a $10 margin at $20 silver. The recent doubling of costs massively amplifies the risks in holding this stock, now.
That's change that has occurred that is all the result of nothing but bad decisions made by bad management...
Other things being equal... if you ignored the implication in the trends, etc., that shift would make something in the range between $1 and $1.50 look like a reasonable price target now... just to have USGIF be priced comparably in relation to silver now as it was then.
It was admittedly undervalued, then, relative to its potential. But, was it really, given the obvious effort in price suppression then was precedent to creating the "potential" we see now, based on the imposition of the management we've seen imposed, since then, paired with the recent stripping of 1/3 of the assets from existing holders ?
The key difference... if you're willing to ignore the value implication of sustaining that same element in control... is that each of the shares currently, after the latest acquisition... now has 1/3 less realized/realizable value attached to it... while the shift in focus from "controlling costs and expanding production" to "development of new potentials" imposes future obligations and shifts the value the market is willing to place on the current cash flow... which should result in a reduction of around another 1/3 in price...
My basic sense of value... requires recognizing that USGIF is worth only around 1/3 of what USSIF was...
Not addressing any of the meaning of the shift in management as a shift in value... just looking at the direct market implication of the decisions that have been made as they impact operations... I think a reasonable price target for USGIF right now is down around $0.75 to $1
There is a separate issue, obviously, in any precious metal miner, with variation that depends on the price of the commodity...
Reasonable investors will separate those two issues... and not attribute to management skill the impact that rising (or falling) metals prices will tend to have on the market pricing of mining stocks. Instead, that factor should be considered a part of your own timing in determining optimal entry and exit points in any trade...
So, buying USSIF in late 2008 early 2009 made sense... because the market dynamic paired a well managed company that was improving its market position and moving toward profitability, with a rising price environment in silver that should easily be seen, in hindsight, as creating a leveraged potential. USSIF with costs at $10 an ounce in a rapidly rising silver market... is a no brainer. USGIF with costs more than double that... in a market that has come off a peak and is returning to longer term trend lines ? When "the rest" of what you see in looking at it... is purely ugliness being imposed in the investor led "takedown" and removal of 1/3 of the assets ? Then, shifting USSIF from "an improving producer"... to a company saddled with large and increasing exploration and development obligations that exceed its capacity to fund them internally ?
My bottom line... is that I can't and don't trust the management (and those who control them) with proper care in exercising their fiduciary duties...
They've proven they're not worthy of that trust.
So, I don't see a reason to consider owning USGIF now.
If I had to put a price target on it... for what I think it should be priced at now with the management and operational risks properly discounted ? I'd say it would be fairly priced at something near $0.50 now... only until they prove their intent to load USGIF up on debt... at which point "less".
What I think we'll see in silver market performance is another issue... but, in the short term, I don't think that's going to be a larger driver of "value" here than other things that are driving realization that "value" that exists here is not meaningfully attached to the ownership of shares...
So, call silver in a trading range, bound between $30 and $40 for a while... and shift focus back to a proper expectation that value creation and realization is a management responsibility, not a market responsibility...
So, I'd still advise that investors will be vastly better served by looking elsewhere for better management, seeking companys with management that have demonstrated they've properly aligned their interest with their common shareholders interest... while sustaining a proper focus on controlling costs, etc.
That is not what you have here...
I think there is more potentially beneficial leverage found now in seeking out well focused explorers that are on the cusp of becoming developers and producers... than there is in seeking out poorly led producers that are intent on becoming explorers...
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
