Palestinians: Conditions in Gaza better than in the West Bank Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (45), September 2012
With positive evaluation of the performance of the Fayyad government declining sharply, satisfaction with President Abbas decreasing, and popularity of Fatah in the West Bank significantly dropping, a larger percentage of Palestinians evaluates, for the first time since the split in 2007, more positively conditions in the Gaza Strip over conditions in the West Bank at a time when more than three quarters believe that protests in the West Bank will continue and escalate.
This poll was conducted during a period that witnessed significant price hikes, particularly fuel prices, and right after the eruption of widespread protests in the West Bank that started in early September but quieted down after the Fayyad government restored the older prices of diesel and gas. In the Gaza Strip, a young unemployed man burned himself but no mass protests took place. The same period witnessed incidents of lawlessness in northern West Bank, including the assassination of a colonel in the Preventive Security force in Jenin. Preparation for local elections continued in the West Bank while reconciliation efforts stalemated with Abbas announcing that no reconciliation government will be formed until Hamas allowed the Election Commission to resume its work in the Gaza Strip and agreed to hold general elections, two conditions that Hamas rejected. Under these conditions, Fayyad proposed holding parliamentary elections in the West Bank. During this period, the PLO announced that it intends to seek UN recognition of Palestine as a non member state but did not specify a date for the request. The period witnessed continued settlers' violence against Palestinians and threats by Israeli foreign minister against Abbas. But with the end of Ramadan, Israeli Civil Administration issued more than one hundred thousand permits allowing Palestinians from the West Bank to visit Jerusalem and Israel. It is worth noting that president Abbas went into a visit to India during the worst days of West Bank mass protests. This press release covers Palestinian attitudes regarding West Bank protests, general and local elections, reconciliation, public evaluation of the performance of the governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh, the internal balance of power between Fateh and Hamas, and the views of the public on the most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems Palestinians confront today.
Main Findings: Bad news for the PA in the West Bank
The third quarter of 2012 brings bad news for the PA in the West Bank. Positive evaluation of West Bank conditions drops significantly. Similarly, positive evaluation of the performance of the Fayyad government drops sharply. Moreover, Fateh's popularity drops and satisfaction with the performance of president Abbas decreases. By contrast, positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip rises. Indeed, for the first time since the split in 2007, a larger percentage of Palestinians give more positive evaluation to conditions in the Gaza Strip than to conditions in the West Bank. It is clear that the wave of price hikes and the decisions taken by the Fayyad government, in raising prices of fuel, are responsible for this sudden shift in public attitudes and evaluations. Indeed, findings show that two thirds of the public say that the current difficult economic situation forces them to demonstrate and protest while more than three quarters of the public expect the current wave of protests to continue and escalate. More than half of the public (55%) expect the protests to spread into the Gaza Strip. In the midst of this environment, pessimism regarding reconciliation increases with the percentage of those expecting the split to become permanent doubling in 18 months, since March 2011. Findings also show that two-thirds reject the idea of holding legislative elections in the West Bank only, believing that such elections would further consolidate the split. But a majority of Palestinians accept president Abbas' position that conditions reconciliation on a Hamas consent to holding elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.
Price Hikes and Popular Protests: More than three quarters expect the West Bank protests to escalate
* More than three quarters (76%) expect the West Bank protests to continue and escalate while 22% expect them to stop. Moreover, a majority of 55% expects the protests to spread into the Gaza Strip and 39% do not expect that.
* 66% say the price hikes and the inability to provide for a better life force them to take part in the protests and 33% say they do not wish to take part in these protests.
* 51% of the public is convinced that the current financial crisis of the PA is real while 44% think it is manufactured.
* The largest percentage (37%) believe that the international financial crisis and the inability of the donor countries to fulfill their obligations to the PA is the reason behind the financial crisis of the PA while 28% say the reason is the cessation of Palestinian-Israeli negotiations and 16% say the reason behind the crisis is the revolts in the Arab World and the Arab preoccupation with their own problems.
* 51% oppose increasing taxes or forcing a number of public sector employees into early retirement as means of resolving the financial crisis of the PA, while 30% support early retirement, 8% support a tax increase, and 10% support both, the early retirement and the tax increase.
* By contrast, 44% believe that a return to negotiations would resolve the financial crisis, as donor assistance would increase, while 34% believe that dissolving the PA resolves its financial crisis.
* A majority of 53% believes that the PA will continue to be able to pay salaries during next year while 37% believe the PA will not be able to do so.
Reconciliation: 42 percent believe that unity will never be restored
* 58% agree and 35% disagree with Abbas' position that the formation of a reconciliation government will come only after Hamas allows the Election Commission to resume work in the Gaza Strip and to set a date for elections.
* On the other hand, only 28% support and 66% oppose Fayyad's proposal to hold legislative elections in the West Bank only.
* Indeed, 63% believe that holding legislative elections in the West Bank only would lead to the consolidation of the West Bank-Gaza Strip split while only 10% believe it will increase the chances for reconciliation.
* In light of the stalemate in the Fateh-Hamas reconciliation efforts, the largest percentage (42%) believes that unity will never be restored and that two separate entities will be established in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; 14% believe that unity will be restored soon, and 40% believe unity will be restored but only after a long time. A year and a half ago, in March 2011, only 21% said unity will not be restored and two separate entities will be established.
Domestic Conditions: Conditions in the Gaza Strip better than in the West Bank
* Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip rises from 22% to 25% while 52% say conditions are bad or very bad.
* Positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank drops significantly from 30% last June to 19% in this poll. Today, 60% say conditions in the West Bank are bad or very bad. Indeed, only 15% of West Bankers describe conditions in the West Bank today as good or very good. It is worth noting that this is the first time since the split in 2007 that more Palestinians evaluate conditions in the Gaza Strip as better than conditions in the West Bank.
* 79% say there is corruption in the PA institutions in the West ank while only 63% say there is corruption in the institutions of the dismissed government in the Gaza Strip.
* 24% say there is, and 42% say there is to some extent, press freedom in the West Bank. By contrast, 17% say there is, and 35% say there is to some extent, press freedom in the Gaza Strip.
* 42% of the Palestinian public say people in the West Bank can criticize the authority in the West Bank without fear. By contrast, 26% of the public say people in the Gaza Strip can criticize the authorities in Gaza without fear. These results indicate a significant increase in the perception of freedom to criticize authorities in the West Bank three months ago when it stood at 29%.
* Perception of safety and security in the West Bank reaches 56% and in the Gaza Strip 64%. Three months ago these percentages stood at 58% in the Gaza Strip and 55% in the West Bank.
* Findings show that the percentage of Gazans who say they seek immigration to other countries stands at 42%; in the West Bank, the percentage stands at 29%.
* Positive evaluation of the performance of the Haniyeh government stands today at 35% and positive evaluation of the performance of the Fayyad government stands at 22%. Three months ago, positive evaluation stood at 36% for the performance of Fayyad and 38% for the performance of Haniyeh.
* Percentage of satisfaction with the performance of President Abbas stands at 46% while 50% say they are dissatisfied with his performance. Three months ago, satisfaction with Abbas stood at 49%.
Presidency, Legislative, and Local Elections: Only 38 percent believe that local elections will take place next month
* If new presidential elections are held today, and only two were nominated, Abbas would receive the vote of 51% and Haniyeh 40% of the vote of those participating. The rate of participation in such elections would reach 55%. Three months ago, Abbas received the support of 49% and Haniyeh 44%. In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 52% and Haniyeh 40% and in the West Bank Abbas receives 49% and Haniyeh 39%.
* If the presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 61% and the latter would receive 32% of the participants’ votes. The rate of participation in this case would reach 66%.
* If the presidential elections were between three: Mahmud Abbas, Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti receives the highest percentage (45%) followed by Haniyeh (29%), and Abbas (20%). The rate of participation in this case would reach 69%. In our previous poll last June, Barghouti received 37%, Haniyeh 33%, and Abbas 25%.
* If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all factions, 69% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 28% say they would vote for Hamas and 37% say they would vote for Fateh, 13% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 23% are undecided. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands in this poll at 31% and in the West Bank at 25%. Vote for Fateh in the Gaza Strip stands in this poll at 40% and in the West Bank at 35%. These results indicate a decline in Fateh's popularity in the West Bank by six percentage points and in Hamas' popularity in the West Bank by two percentage points.
* Only 38% of the public believe that local elections, scheduled to take place next month in the West Bank, will indeed take place as scheduled while 50% say it will not take place on the set date.
* 47% of West Bankers say they will participate in the upcoming local elections and 50% say they will not participate.
* 44% of the public believe that local elections, set to take place next month, will not be fair and an equal percentage (44%) believes it will be fair.
Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting Palestinians today:
* 44% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, 30% believe the first most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 15% believe that it should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and 11% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians.
* The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today is the spread of poverty and unemployment in the eyes of 32% of the public while 23% believe the most serious problem is the continuation of occupation and settlement activities, 19% say it is the absence of national unity due to the West Bank-Gaza Strip split, 15% believe the most serious problem is corruption in some public institutions, and 9% believe it is the siege and the closure of the Gaza border crossings.
These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 13-15 September 2012. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. While this press release covers domestic Palestinian issues, other issues related to the peace process and Israeli-Palestinian relations will be covered in a separate joint Palestinian-Israeli press release and later in our more detailed report on the poll. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel. 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.
This survey was conducted with the support of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Ramallah.
Morsi sympathizes with the stateless Palestinians, who are being kept without a state and without basic human rights by the right wing Israeli government. But more, he sympathizes with Hamas itself, which the US and Israel have branded a terrorist organization. Because the US has put Hamas on the terrorist list, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton cannot talk to the government of Gaza (which seems rather stupid), and Morsi is therefore a key interlocutor.
Morsi and Hamas want an end to the Israeli blockade on Gaza, which prevents the Strip from exporting 99% of its products. Israel wants an end to the launching of small home-made rockets against its territory (these rockets occasionally injure people and cause property damage in nearby cities such as Sderot, and in the past decade killed some 26 victims before the outbreak of the current hostilities.) It is not clear that anyone in Gaza could actually deliver on a pledge to stop small guerrilla groups from launching home-made rockets.
Morsi is already being blamed by old-regime secularists in Egypt for failing to curb Muslim fundamentalist radicals in the Sinai Peninsula. If the Gaza conflict in some way spills over onto Sinai, Morsi would risk looking as though he is not in control, and would probably face strong opposition from the officer corps (much of which dislikes the Muslim Brotherhood).
Still, Morsi as president makes part of the big difference between Israel’s attack on Gaza in 2008-09 and today’s assault. In 08-09, the Palestinians had no real support from Egypt and of course the Israeli government and the Bush administration had it in for them. Hosni Mubarak and his right hand man Omar Sulaiman hated Hamas. When Israel attacked Gaza, they quickly closed the Rafah crossing and Egyptian troops actually shot dead two Palestinians trying to flee into Egypt from the bombing.
Egypt, at some 82 million (nearly the size of Germany), is the most populous Arab country, and it is still something of a thought leader for the Arab world. It has the biggest and best army in the Middle East, though there are virtually no Egyptians who would welcome war.
This time, Morsi has called the invasion a “farce,” .. http://rt.com/news/morsi-gaza-israel-agression-160/ .. and has swung into action to get a ceasefire. He sent his prime minister into Gaza .. http://ar.trend.az/news/society/2090374.html .. to make a statement, and his government has allowed over a dozen foreign ministers and other high officials from the Middle East into the Strip to show their solidarity or explore negotiations. It is not entirely clear what chips he brings to the table with regard to Israel. Egypt and Israel don’t do that much trade with one another, and Morsi has few effective moves. He can keep Egypt’s ambassador to Israel at home and just play symbolic politics, though that step might not be effective.
As a last resort, he could always just go to Gaza himself, a step Palestinians are imploring him to take .. http://ar.trend.az/news/society/2090374.html , calculating that Israel would not dare risk killing the president of Egypt with an errant air strike or in a land invasion.
Egypt has also taken some wounded Palestinians for treatment at El Arish, and some 500 activists from Egypt brought in food and other aid on Saturday.
If Morsi succeeds in brokering a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel, that step would reinforce the US-Egyptian alliance and perhaps raise Egypt’s importance. If he fails, he could well face public anger in Egypt; and, he might face a new challenge from the Egyptian military.
Dr Stuart Jeanne Bramhall SEPTEMBER 21, 2012 6:17PM
Palestine's Arab Spring
A September 15th article (Revolution in the Air at Last .. http://www.economist.com/node/21562958 ) in the highly conservative Economist is predicting possible revolution in Palestine. It’s extremely good news for antiwar activists, economists, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey and all other halfway sane people seeking to thwart a threatened Israeli attack on Iran. A full blown Arab Spring uprising in Palestine (Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas has referred to growing unrest as the Palestinian Arab Spring) would hopefully keep Israeli war monger Binyamin Netanyahu too busy in his own back yard to start World War III.
Extreme Financial Hardship in the West Bank
In recent demonstrations across the West Bank, where the Palestinian Authority (PA) is supposedly in charge, protests over high food prices have escalated to calls for both Abbas and prime minister Salam Fayyad to step down. Tied into Israel’s economy under terms of the 1993 Oslo Peace Accords, residents of the West Bank pay Israeli prices for goods while earning a fifth of Israeli salaries. Meanwhile the PA, deeply in debt, limps along from month to month, as previously generous foreign aid slows to a dribble. Gulf donors, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have become reluctant as Palestinians to support an entity that seems incapable of ending Israel’s occupation. Thus most of their aid funds go to Gaza, where Israel ended the military occupation in 2005, and which has been fully run by Hamas Islamists since the 2007 elections.
Europeans, struggling with their own economic crisis, have also drastically cut assistance to the PA. Meanwhile the Obama administration, which has promised $200 million, is making it conditional on a Palestinian promise not to seek the UN recognition of statehood (at least not before the November elections). Thus, at present, the PA relies on Israel for two-thirds of its operating expenses (through a transfer of tax revenues collected in the West Bank).
The Power Struggle in the PA’s Unelected Leadership
The protests also relate, in part, to a long-standing power struggle between Abbas, the Fatah leader who succeeded Yasar Arafat, and Fayyad, an economist trained in America and favored by Washington. What the Economist doesn’t mention is that both Abbas and Fayyad are “appointed” puppets the US and Israel installed in the West Bank after Hamas won the 2007 PA elections (see The Effect of Public Opinion in Palestine .. http://stuartbramhall.aegauthorblogs.com/2012/01/01/the-effect-of-public-opinion-in-palestine/ ). Technically Hamas was the legitimately elected authority in the West Bank, as well as Gaza. Refusing to recognize the elections, the US and Israel replaced the Hamas leadership with Abbas, Fayyad and Fatah party officials. Hamas only retained power in Gaza by undertaking military action to expel the CIA-backed Fatah operatives who had seized crucial security outposts.
At the beginning of September, trade unions and taxi-drivers, who get their licenses from the Fatah-dominated intelligence services, declared a general strike and closed roads, paralyzing the city centers. Fatah-linked Palestinian security officers in plain clothes manned the barricades and lit tires.
By September 10th, the PA was facing the most popular and widespread protests in the 18 years since it was formed in 1993 Oslo accords. In the southern city of Hebron, gangs of youths threw rocks at a police station. In Nablus, they charged a security base. Although the Palestinian police dispersed them with tear gas, the uproar only died down when Fayyad made concessions promised to rescind price rises and pay a first installment of delayed salaries.
The popular uprising is far from over, with Israel’s recent threat to cut off power to the West Bank unless the PA comes up with $200m for unpaid electricity bills.
Palestinians are becoming a lot more restless and angry again
Sep 15th 2012 | BETHLEHEM | from the print edition
WHEREAS Israel’s settlements, the building of a separation barrier through the West Bank and sporadic bouts of violence have failed in the past seven years or so to rouse the Palestinians to a mass insurrection, the cost of petrol and bread might yet succeed. In recent demonstrations across the West Bank, where the Palestinian Authority (PA) is supposed to be in charge, cries of anger have quickly switched from “Down with prices!” to “Down with Salam Fayyad!”, the PA’s prime minister, “Down with Mahmoud Abbas!”, the PA’s president, and, after a week of protests, “Down with the Oslo accords!”, the agreement in 1993 between Israel and the Palestinians which gave birth to the PA. With the PA now offering no clear strategy for liberation, many Palestinians deem it to have become a vehicle for Israel’s 45-year-long military occupation.
The protests were at first part of long-standing power struggle between Mr Fayyad, an economist trained in America and favoured by the administration in Washington, who considers himself independent, and Fatah, the nationalist movement that has led Palestinians for four decades but has lost power to the Islamists in Gaza and to some extent to Mr Fayyad in the West Bank. Trade unions and taxi-drivers, who owe their licences to the Fatah-dominated intelligence services, declared a general strike and closed roads, paralysing city centres. Fatah-linked Palestinian security officers in plain clothes manned the barricades and lit tyres. Mr Abbas, a Fatah man, cheerily fanned the flames, saying that Palestine’s Arab spring had begun.
The protests quickly spiralled. By September 10th, the PA was facing the most popular and widespread protests in its 18-year history. In the southern city of Hebron, where the PA’s presence is thinner and Palestinian clans stronger, youths hurled stones at the police station. In Nablus, where Fatah is divided, they charged a security base. Palestinian police struck back with tear-gas. Revealing growing dissent in the ranks, Fatah gunmen shot dead a security chief driving home in the northern bit of the West Bank. Last month they raked Mr Fayyad’s smart new office in Ramallah, the PA’s headquarters, with gunfire. In his first concession, Mr Fayyad promised to rescind price rises and pay a first instalment of delayed salaries.
This is not yet an Egyptian-style revolution, though some of the protesters wish it were. Outside Hebron, the Islamists, who could swing the balance, have cautiously watched from the sidelines. Young Palestinians are leaderless. Many seem satisfied, at least for the time being, by Mr Fayyad’s volte face on prices.
But the PA’s deeper problems are far from resolved. Tied into Israel’s economy thanks to an additional feature of the Oslo accords, West Bankers pay Israeli prices for goods while earning a fifth of Israeli salaries. The Palestinians, like the PA, are deeply in debt; if the banks refused to shell out, the Palestinian financial system could collapse. Mr Fayyad limps along from month to month, seeking foreign handouts. But Gulf donors now feel as reluctant as Palestinians to support an entity that seems incapable of ending Israel’s occupation, and have switched their funds to Gaza, the seaside enclave from which Israel withdrew in 2005 and which has been fully run since 2007 by the Islamists of Hamas, Fatah’s bitter rival.
Meanwhile, the Europeans, gripped by their economic crisis, are less able or willing to help. And the Americans, who have promised $200m in aid, first want a Palestinian promise not to seek the UN’s recognition of statehood, at least before the American presidential poll in November.
Guess whom they need most?
That leaves the Palestinians reliant on Israel. Each month, it transfers two-thirds of the PA’s budget in the form of tax revenue. But Israel’s government, led by Binyamin Netanyahu, is divided. Many of its members are happy for a feeble PA to go on managing Palestinian daily affairs. Without it they reckon there would be mayhem and the risk of a third Palestinian intifada (uprising). But other Israelis who still hanker after a Greater Israel, with the West Bank fully integrated into the Jewish state, smell an opportunity to put the PA out of its misery and grab the lot.
Mr Netanyahu may continue to fudge. Though reluctantly accepting the notion of a two-state solution, he sounds loth to achieve it. Instead he may offer small concessions to buy the PA time. For instance, he could issue Palestinians more work permits, tying them further into Israel’s economy, or he could let the Palestinians have a bit more authority over the crossing into Jordan, as Gazans already have with Egypt. With better access to Jordan, West Bankers could import items such as fuel at cheaper Arab prices, not Israeli ones.
But doing nothing may soon no longer be an option for Mr Netanyahu. The Israeli authorities are threatening to turn off the West Bank’s lights on September 15th if the PA does not cough up $200m for unpaid electricity bills. Power cuts have begun. “We’re more under siege by Israel than Gaza is”, moans a car mechanic, who has joined a general strike.
News 
Market Data 
Discover 
