Replies to post #101389 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[geocappy1]

Agreed. I do not expect them to publicly state the impact of the error, rather, I would expect them to communicate where the 2nd line indication goes from here. It is possible to move forward into phIII and still have a claim against the third party (i.e FDA signs off but claim is still for lost time, forfeited fees for loan, etc). Likewise, it is still possible that we will not move forward and have no third party claim (i.e we were complicit in error). This is why there is a need for an internal investigation. If we want to claim third party error and win suit, we also have to make sure we had no role internally that could have helped cause the error or made it worse (you do not go to a gun fight unless you know how many bullets you have or if one of your guns doesn't work).

If you are going to say it is there fault you better know you didn't have any part of the error or do anything that could have led the third party to do what they did because if you did it will come out later.

So, I would say we will get word on what our next step is in the drug approval process but I do not expect to hear ther impact of the error until the lawsuit with CSM is played out. The next step will tell us a lot about what the impact was.

[skweze]

I agree that it would be unusual to put a time commitment on an impact evaluation announcement. However several posts here seemed to intimate that they did just that. For example, in your own excellent analysis, Analyze It Better 9.0:

What now!
Peregrine intends to communicate further as soon as it is able to determine the impact of this issue, in weeks not months, according private mail exchanged with at least two members of this board who posted it. [emphasis mine, i.e., sqweze] An undisclosed external body is conducting an investigation (probably the FDA). For now Peregrine advises not to rely on previous announcements. On OCT 18, 2012 Peregrine holds an annual meeting. Up to that date it is very improbable that we will receive any new news about the discrepancy case. Technically weeks not months could be 7 weeks after the SEPT 24th. That would even take us behind the OCT 18 Annual Meeting.

To me, that reads like they intend to communicate on the impact, but then it might not be verbatim quote of the referenced email. This is why I would like to see an actual transcription of the email at issue.

P.S. I'm not trying to knock management here; just looking for good trading opportunities.