Replies to post #151628 on Biotech Values

[zipjet]

Copaxone is still holding more than 40% of MS drugs market share.

It continues to be one of the top choices for new MS patients treated by the top* MS docs here. IMO, more people should be taking Tysabri.

I suspect it will take something very significant to upset the Copaxone share. BG12 IF priced close (unlikely) to Copaxone could do it.

ij



* Researchers and thought leaders.

[DewDiligence]

Copaxone is still holding more than 40% of MS drugs market share.

What’s impressive is that Copaxone’s US share of patient Rx’s for MS has not changed to a significant degree from the launch of Gilenya or the uptake in Tysabri from JC-testing. Rather, Copaxone’s US share has remained at or near 40% for the past few years.

[DewDiligence]

Teva forecasts $3.7-3.9B of worldwide Copaxone sales in 2013, which is a slight decrease from 2012. Teva has not given guidance on US Copaxone sales, specifically; however, if the historical 74% of sales in the US holds, then Teva expects 2013 US Copaxone sales of about $2.9B. The actual amount will depend on Copaxone price increases (which are a near certainty) and on competition from BG-12 and other oral agents.

Source: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/818686/000115752312006239/a50493505.htm

p.s. Copaxone has a worldwide gross margin of 90%, according to the above.

[DewDiligence]

Teva raises Copaxone price 10% (#msg-83178715), but this was already baked into Teva’s prior guidance, which implies about $2.9B of US Copaxone sales in 2013 (#msg-81977344).