Replies to post #190891 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[StephanieVanbryce]

Psy Ops

Drudge has three polls today: Rasmussen, Gallup and Fred Barnes' distortion of the Battleground poll. Meanwhile, the demonization [ http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/10/nate-silver-romney-clearly-could-still-win-147618.html ] of Nate Silver continues with Joe Scarborough:

Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they're jokes.

But Silver's model remains unchanged throughout the election. And its current prediction of the popular vote remains close: 50.4 for Obama to 48.7 for Romney. Nate was a sports stats nerd; he's not an "ideologue". Of course Romney can still win. But when you crunch the electoral college through all the swing state polls, and give Romney Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Nevada (which are all very close right now), you still get this:



Leave Nate alone! At least until after the election, if his model is shown to be way off.

Related:

People Who Can't Do Math Are So Mad At Nate Silver
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/10/people-who-cant-do-math-are-so-mad-nate-silver/58460/

That article at the Atlantic is WORTH the read!there's more embedded links in Andy's piece .. tsk
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/10/psy-ops.html