lenders get paid in shares based on VWAP, so that's why the chart has been so volatile. they push it down to get a favorable pps range, then when they get a new load from the TA they push the stock up to monetize those shares.
note: there's no monthly calculation period for the VWAP. i think the longest span of time is 10 days, based on the deals i've read in the filings.
right now, i just see the debt holders taking advantage of a quiet period in the news cycle, knowing when PRs start hitting they can sell the shares they converted for a much higher price.
traders see this and take advantage, too. if they time it right.
the rest of your forecast is absolutely in line with how i'm seeing it unfold.